Crucial Jobs Report to Kick Off December Trading: Weekly Highlights

Dec 1, 2024 at 12:40 PM
Stocks are gearing up to enter the final month of 2024 with a strong momentum, approaching record highs. This comes as investors anticipate a successful conclusion to another remarkable year for US stocks. During the recent holiday-shortened trading week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) witnessed a significant rise of more than 2%. Simultaneously, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) also saw gains of over 1%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended November at all-time highs, setting the stage for an exciting week ahead.

Unraveling the Stock Market's End-of-Year Trajectory

Stock Market Rally and the "Magnificent Seven"

Wall Street strategists have been predominantly optimistic when presenting 2025 forecasts. Those tracked by Yahoo Finance anticipate the S&P 500 to end the year between 6,400 and 7,000. A common expectation is for the stock market rally to continue to broaden, moving away from the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks - Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Nvidia (NVDA), and towards the other 493 stocks in the index. RBC Capital Markets' head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, emphasized that while there is an edge towards the broadening of market leadership or the shift into value, it is a close call. She highlighted that another year of strong economic growth could provide support to the S&P 493.However, not everyone shares this view. Barclays' head of US equity strategy, Venu Krishna, pointed out that Big Tech continues to exceed earnings estimates each quarter. As long as this trend persists, he argued that Big Tech is likely to remain a crucial earnings growth driver for the S&P 500 in the coming year. To illustrate this point, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe noted in a research note published on Nov. 27 that six Big Tech companies have seen their earnings revisions for the current quarter either remain flat or increase in the past 30 days. Only Microsoft and Apple have seen their earnings estimates cut more than the S&P 500's 1.2% estimate trim during this period. Meanwhile, the S&P 500's 10 largest non-tech companies have seen their earnings estimates slashed by an average of 2.7%. Rabe wrote, "US Big Tech names have solid earnings estimate momentum, and they are much better off than the S&P as a whole as well as its top 10 non-Tech holdings. Fortunately, Big Tech makes up a third of the S&P, so their fundamentals have an outsized impact on the index."

Economic Data and the Federal Reserve's Next Move

In the week ahead, a crucial series of labor market data is set to captivate investors. Friday morning's November jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the week's most significant release. Updates on job openings and private wage growth, along with readings on activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, will also be scattered throughout the schedule. Investors will closely examine this week's economic data to gain clarity on the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, which will be announced on Dec. 18.As of Friday, markets were pricing in a 66% chance that the Fed will cut rates at its final meeting of the year. However, looking further ahead, markets are anticipating just two more rate cuts over the next year. Concerns are growing about the Fed's progress in bringing down inflation. A labor market that continues to slow, but not dramatically, is likely to keep the Fed focused on inflation, making a less compelling case for aggressive rate cuts in 2025. An update on this narrative will come with the November jobs report, due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.Economists expect the report to show a reversal of the dismal October employment report, which many believed was heavily impacted by hurricanes and worker strikes. The November report is anticipated to show that the US labor market added 200,000 jobs in the month, an increase from the 12,000 monthly job additions seen in October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%. The Wells Fargo Economics team, led by Jay Bryson, wrote in a note to clients, "Through the monthly swings of nonfarm payrolls, we expect the November employment report to reiterate that while the labor market remains solid in an absolute sense, the softening trend in employment conditions has yet to cease. That message is likely to come through more clearly from the unemployment rate, which we look to rise to 4.2%."

Corporate Earnings and Upcoming Releases

In corporate news, earnings from Salesforce (CRM), Okta (OKTA), and Lululemon (LULU) will take center stage in the coming week's schedule. These earnings reports will provide valuable insights into the performance of these companies and the overall market sentiment.The week also brings a series of economic data releases and earnings announcements from various companies across different sectors. From manufacturing and services PMIs to jobless claims and durable goods orders, the economic calendar is packed with important information. Each data point and earnings release will offer a glimpse into the health of the economy and the performance of individual companies.Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.Click here for the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis, including events that move stocks.Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance.