The Electrifying Future: UK Car Market Poised for a Seismic Shift Towards EVs by 2028

The UK car market is on the cusp of a transformative shift, as a new forecast from Cox Automotive reveals a significant surge in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) by 2028. This groundbreaking report sheds light on the rapidly evolving landscape of the automotive industry, painting a picture of a future where traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are rapidly losing ground to their eco-friendly counterparts.

Powering the Future: The Rise of EVs and Hybrids in the UK Car Market

Electrifying Surge: EVs to Dominate 28% of New Car Registrations by 2028

The forecast from Cox Automotive paints a compelling picture of the UK's automotive future. By 2028, EVs are poised to make up a staggering 28% of new car registrations, marking a remarkable 160% increase compared to the 2020-2023 period. This translates to a remarkable 2.3 million EV units hitting the roads, a testament to the growing consumer appetite for sustainable mobility solutions.Hybrid vehicles are also set to experience a significant rise, with their market share expected to reach 25% by 2028, equating to two million units sold. This surge in hybrid and electric vehicle adoption reflects the UK's commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and embracing a greener future.

Diesel and Petrol Decline: A Stark Shift in Fuel-Type Preferences

The forecast also reveals a stark decline in the popularity of traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Over the next four years, the share of diesel vehicles is expected to plummet to just 3%, with a mere 62,000 units registered in 2027. This dramatic drop is mirrored in the projected decline of petrol vehicles, which are forecast to account for only 35% of new registrations by 2028, a loss of 2.3 million petrol-powered vehicles from the used market by 2027-end.

Evolving Car Parc: The Shifting Landscape of the UK's Vehicle Fleet

The study conducted by Cox Automotive also sheds light on the evolving composition of the UK's car parc, or the total number of vehicles on the road. The data reveals a significant increase in the market share of EVs and hybrids since 2016, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have suffered the most, with their market share plummeting from 95% in the 2016-2019 period to just 71% in 2020-2023.This trend is expected to continue, with Cox Automotive forecasting a further 35% drop in ICE vehicle registrations by the end of 2027. This means that by 2027, only 784,000 new ICE vehicles will be registered, a stark contrast to the 1.2 million registered in 2023.

Diesel Decline: A Fading Presence in the UK's Car Market

The data also highlights the declining fortunes of diesel-powered vehicles. Diesel's market share has fallen from 38% in the 2016-2019 period to just 13% in the 2020-2023 period. By 2023, diesel, including mild-hybrid variants, is expected to account for only 8% of new registrations, a figure that is projected to shrink further to just 3% by 2028, a loss of an additional 488,000 diesel vehicles over the next four years.

Petrol Holds On, but Faces Gradual Decline

While petrol volumes have remained relatively stable, Cox Automotive predicts that petrol's share of all registrations will fall to 51% by the end of this year and to 35% by 2028. This represents a loss of 2.3 million petrol-powered vehicles from the used market by 2027-end, as consumers increasingly embrace alternative fuel options.

Navigating the Changing Tides: Challenges and Opportunities for the Automotive Industry

Philip Nothard, the Insight Director at Cox Automotive, offers a compelling perspective on the implications of this seismic shift. "Manufacturers will continue to be driven by legislation rather than consumer demand, and ICE will be all but gone from the UK's new car market long before the 2035 deadline," he states.This shift poses both challenges and opportunities for the automotive industry. For used car retailers, it means a fierce competition for the best stock, as the supply of traditional ICE vehicles dwindles. For consumers, it signifies a diminishing choice and the potential for above-inflation price increases as the market adapts to the new reality.The UK's car market is undoubtedly on the cusp of a transformative change, with EVs and hybrids poised to dominate the landscape by 2028. This forecast from Cox Automotive serves as a wake-up call for the industry, highlighting the need for strategic planning and adaptability to navigate the rapidly evolving automotive landscape. As the world moves towards a more sustainable future, the UK's car market is leading the charge, paving the way for a greener and more efficient transportation ecosystem.