President-elect Donald Trump's legal troubles have taken an unexpected turn, with the possibility of his New York criminal sentencing never materializing. The reasons behind this potential outcome range from the political firestorm that a sentence could ignite to the new legal defenses he can raise as president-elect and later as president.

Navigating the Legal Labyrinth: Trump's Path to Avoiding Sentencing

The Supreme Court's Lifeline

The Supreme Court's July 1 presidential immunity ruling in Trump's federal election interference case has provided a potential lifeline for the former president. The ruling, which was supported by five of the six Republican-appointed justices, stated that a jury in a criminal case against a former president cannot hear various forms of evidence about official presidential actions. Trump has argued that even if the hush money payment to Daniels and the falsified business records were not official presidential acts, some of the evidence presented to secure both the indictment and his convictions ran afoul of the Supreme Court's ruling. This includes testimony from his former White House communications director, Hope Hicks, about events during his presidency.Even if Trump fails to persuade the presiding judge, Merchan, he could appeal the decision, potentially delaying the sentencing process. Legal experts believe it is "overwhelmingly likely" that the scheduled November 26th sentencing date would be postponed as the appeals court considers the immunity issue.

The Political Minefield

Sentencing Trump now that he is the president-elect could create a significant political firestorm. While this may not seem like a legal argument, it is a factor that the judge and appeals courts will likely consider. As one legal expert noted, "any judge can't ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room, which is this guy was just resoundingly voted to be the next president. If (Merchan) were to sentence him, this country is going to get torn apart even further at the seams."

New Legal Challenges Arising from the Election

Trump's election victory has given him new legal arguments for fighting the sentencing. The Supreme Court's presidential immunity ruling voiced concerns about court proceedings interfering with the presidency, stating that a president cannot be prosecuted for official acts unless doing so "would pose no 'dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch.'" Trump could argue that similar concerns apply to a state court sentencing a president-elect or imposing a sentence that would extend past his January 20th presidential inauguration.Legal experts disagree on whether these concerns about state court overreach would only come into play after Trump is inaugurated or if the judge or an appeals court would also entertain them at an earlier stage.

Retrial Challenges and the Passage of Time

If Trump's convictions are thrown out and he is shielded from prosecution during his next presidency, Manhattan prosecutors could theoretically pursue a retrial afterward. However, at that point, Trump could argue that retrying him violates his constitutional due process rights because evidence and testimony have aged. As one legal expert noted, "When defendants have that long of a gap between the first trial and the second trial, they will often argue that they can't be put on trial fairly four years later because witnesses' memories will have faded, some people may have died."

The Trump Factor: Age and Perception

Even if Trump's convictions stand the test of time, but he still faces sentencing years from now, his age could work in his favor. As a former Manhattan prosecutor noted, "the man is 78 years old, and for someone who's 78 who has no (prior) criminal convictions, the court will look at that." Trump would be 82 at the end of his upcoming four-year term, and as another legal expert stated, "Even in cases where somebody became a fugitive, at a certain age, they're just not going to be punished, and Trump would be the furthest thing from a fugitive."The combination of these legal and political factors has significantly shifted the dynamics in Trump's favor, as one legal expert observed, "The leverage in this whole situation, the whole dynamic, has just changed radically since Tuesday. Trump is in just a much stronger position, both in terms of public perception and in getting out of this."