Stock Futures Steady as Wall St. Waits for Fed's Rate Decision

Traders were actively working at the New York Stock Exchange on Dec. 17, 2024. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed little change as traders anticipated the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. Dow futures were hovering around the flatline, with S&P 500 futures slipping 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures shedding 0.2%. During the regular session, the Dow slipped 267.58 points, or 0.61%, marking a nine-day losing streak, its longest since 1978. The S&P 500 dropped 0.39%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32%. These losses came ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision due out on Wednesday afternoon. Fed funds futures trading currently indicates a 95% chance of a quarter percentage point interest rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors were closely observing Fed policymakers' Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, seeking clues about the future. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, said, "I think we'll get a cut tomorrow, but the language and tone will likely be as hawkish as we've seen from Powell in a while. While they won't act on policy that hasn't been made, they will be hesitant to commit to, say, four-plus rate cuts in 2025 with so much uncertainty." He added that hawkish commentary on Wednesday could lead to a stock selloff, but he was optimistic that volatility around Fed meetings usually doesn't last long. "We've seen big moves on days when the Fed announced a policy change and how it spoke - and these were either reversed later or gains were given back or losses cut. So I'm not overly worried about what happens immediately after tomorrow." Before Wednesday's bell, General Mills, Birkenstock, and Jabil were set to report their latest earnings. Results from Micron Technology and Lennar were due in the afternoon.

Market Performance on Fed Days under Different Chairs

According to a tweet from Bespoke Investment Group, market performance on Fed days has been weakest during Powell's tenure as chair compared to the three previous Fed chairs. On average, the S&P 500 rose just 0.11% under Powell. Under Yellen, it averaged a 0.16% rise, and under Greenspan's tenure, it rose to 0.26%. Market performance on Fed days was at its highest under Bernanke's tenure, averaging a 0.50% advance. This statistic is especially true in the last trading hour of the day.

10 out of 11 Sectors Ended Tuesday in the Red

On Tuesday, 10 of the 11 GICS sectors ended in the red. The industrials sector led the downside, slipping 0.9%. On the other hand, the consumer discretionary sector was the only one to end the day higher, gaining 0.28%. All sectors are still positive for the year, with communication services leading the way, up 44.08%. Health care, which has added just 1.73%, is the laggard.

Stocks Futures Traded Near Flat

Stock futures traded near flat on Tuesday night. Futures tied to the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 were all marginally below the flatline shortly after 6 p.m. ET. This indicates a relatively stable market sentiment before the Fed's decision.