Each year, as awards season progresses, certain films and performances solidify their positions as strong contenders for Oscar nominations, while others remain on the fringes, vying for those coveted final spots. This year's landscape has proven particularly dynamic, with seasoned critics and industry insiders engaging in vigorous debate over who will ultimately make the cut in the most prestigious categories.
Insider Predictions for the Upcoming Academy Awards
In a recent and much-anticipated broadcast of Entertainment Weekly's "The Awardist" podcast, industry stalwarts Joey Nolfi, Joyce Eng, and Patrick Gomez, joined by the host, meticulously dissected the likely nominees across the top six Oscar categories. Their expert discussion, rich with insights and informed opinions, offered a compelling look into the intricate world of Academy Awards prognostication.
The panel reached a consensus on several nominations. In the category of Supporting Actor, the esteemed Stellan Skarsgård for his role in Sentimental Value, the rising star Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, the versatile Benicio Del Toro and the veteran Sean Penn, both for One Battle After Another, alongside Paul Mescal for Hamnet, were all unanimously predicted. For Lead Actor, Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme, Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, and Michael B. Jordan in Sinners were considered sure bets. After extensive deliberation, the final two slots were awarded to Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, a Golden Globe winner, and Jesse Plemons for Bugonia, who has garnered attention across various awards. Notably, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon and Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams were also strong contenders.
The Supporting Actress category proved to be the most challenging to foresee. While Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (who also secured a Golden Globe win), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value, and Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners were consistently chosen, the remaining slots sparked lively discussion. Amy Madigan for Weapons (a Critics Choice Award recipient) was deemed a lock by several panelists. The conversation also included Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good, Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value, Odessa A'Zion for Marty Supreme, Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme, and Regina Hall for One Battle After Another. A pivotal moment in the podcast saw the panel, influenced by Joyce Eng's persuasive arguments regarding the Academy's preferential voting system, collectively shift their final supporting actress prediction to Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue, citing the film's broad appeal within a specific voter demographic.
In the Lead Actress race, Jessie Buckley's performance in Hamnet was widely regarded as the one to surpass. Rose Byrne's compelling portrayal in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, which garnered critical acclaim including the Silver Bear at the Berlin Film Festival and a Golden Globe, positioned her as a formidable contender. Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value and Emma Stone for Bugonia were also expected to secure nominations. The ultimate spot for Lead Actress, however, generated significant debate, with previous frontrunner Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good seeing her momentum wane. Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee and Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue emerged as strong late-stage contenders, ultimately leading to Hudson's inclusion in the final predictions. Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another, despite strong film support, faced skepticism regarding her ability to secure enough first-preference votes.
For Director, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another was a unanimous choice for both nomination and potential win, joined by Ryan Coogler for Sinners and Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. The remaining two directorial nominations saw fierce competition among Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, and Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident, with the panelists' final choices varying. Finally, for Best Picture, the panel confidently identified eight nominees: One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Bugonia, Frankenstein, and The Secret Agent. The final two slots were intensely debated between Train Dreams, F1, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Weapons, and It Was Just an Accident.
This insightful discussion from "The Awardist" podcast not only highlights the unpredictability inherent in Oscar season but also underscores the nuanced factors—from critical acclaim and festival honors to industry buzz and voting demographics—that ultimately shape the Academy's choices. It's a reminder that beyond the glitz and glamour, awards season is a complex interplay of artistic merit, strategic campaigning, and the collective taste of thousands of voters. The evolving predictions suggest that this year's nominations, when they are finally unveiled, will likely contain a few surprises, keeping film enthusiasts on the edge of their seats until the very end.
