Navigating the Volatile Cattle and Hog Markets: A Comprehensive Analysis
Oct 16, 2024 at 8:29 PM
Cattle Futures Slide Amid Corn Price Surge
The cattle futures market experienced a mixed performance this week, with live cattle mostly lower and feeders pressured by the higher corn prices. The direct cash cattle trade remained quiet, with limited activity and bids not surfacing. Meanwhile, the feeder cattle market saw a range of price movements, with some locations reporting lower prices while others saw higher prices. The boxed beef market closed higher, reflecting solid demand for the moderate offerings. In the hog market, lean hog futures ended the day mostly higher, supported by higher pork values, while cash hog prices also closed higher despite a light negotiated run.Navigating the Volatile Cattle and Hog Markets
Live Cattle Futures Retreat Ahead of Direct Trade
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live cattle futures were mostly lower, with the December contract closing $0.07 higher at $186.60 and the February contract closing $0.42 lower at $186.97. The decline in live cattle futures was likely influenced by the higher move in corn prices, which put pressure on the feeder cattle market. November feeder cattle closed $0.97 lower at $245.50, while January feeder cattle closed $0.87 lower at $243.35.The direct cash cattle trade remained quiet on Wednesday, with bids not surfacing and asking prices in the South at $189 to $190 live. The North remained relatively inactive, and significant trade volume is expected to occur later in the week, potentially on Thursday or Friday.Feeder Cattle Prices See Mixed Movements
At the Ozarks Regional Stockyards in Missouri, feeder steers sold from $5 lower to $3 higher, while feeder heifers sold from $5 lower to $8 higher. The USDA reported that supply was light, but demand was good. Receipts were up on the week and the year, with 59% of the offering being steers and 44% of the offering weighing over 600 pounds.In the feeder cattle market, Medium and Large 1 steers weighing 609 to 636 pounds brought $260 to $280, while those weighing 770 to 778 pounds brought $248 to $254. For feeder heifers, Medium and Large 1 heifers weighing 451 to 495 pounds brought $265 to $287, and those weighing 552 to 585 pounds brought $246 to $255.Boxed Beef Closes Higher Amid Solid Demand
The boxed beef market closed higher, with Choice beef $2.30 higher at $319.13 and Select beef $0.28 higher at $292.37. The Choice/Select spread widened to $26.76. Estimated cattle slaughter was 125,000 head, even on the week and down less than 1,000 on the year.The strong demand for boxed beef, despite the moderate offerings, suggests that consumers are still willing to pay premium prices for high-quality beef products. This could be a positive sign for the cattle industry, as it indicates that the market is able to absorb the available supply without significant price declines.Hog Futures and Cash Prices Climb Higher
In the hog market, lean hog futures ended the day mostly higher, with the December contract closing $2.47 higher at $77.70 and the February contract closing $1.80 higher at $81.10. The higher futures prices were likely driven by the higher pork values observed at midday.Cash hog prices also closed higher, with a pretty light negotiated run. Processors were bidding up to move the needed numbers, but overall market activity has been lackluster. Hog weights are up again this week, reaching 285.4 pounds, which is more than half a pound higher than last week and nearly 2 pounds heavier than year-ago levels. The ample supply of market-ready hogs and the heavier weights have contributed to the current pork availability, making the strong demand for U.S. pork in other countries even more important to maintain prices.At the National Daily Direct, barrows and gilts closed $0.63 higher, with a base range of $71 to $80 and a weighted average of $77.43. Prices at the Regional Direct Markets were not reported due to confidentiality.In the Midwest cash markets, butcher hog prices were steady at $60 in Dorchester, Wisconsin, and Garnavillo, Iowa, while they were $2 lower at $50 in Red Oak, Iowa. At Illinois, slaughter sow prices were steady with moderate demand for moderate offerings at $56 to $68, and barrows and gilts were steady with moderate demand for moderate offerings at $45 to $55. Boar prices ranged from $20 to $30 and $15 to $25.Pork values closed higher, up $0.45 at $94.85. Ribs, picnics, and hams were all higher, while butts, bellies, and loins were lower. Estimated hog slaughter was 486,000 head, even on the week and down about 8,000 on the year.