Food insecurity is a pressing global issue, and in Africa, it poses significant challenges. This study delves into the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of severe food insecurity across the African continent from 2015 to 2021. By analyzing various data and using advanced spatial tools, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of this critical problem.

Unveiling the Hidden Patterns of Severe Food Insecurity in Africa

Spatial Patterns of Severe Food Insecurity

The overall prevalence of severe food insecurity in Africa from 2015 to 2021 shows a consistent increase. As depicted in Fig. 1, countries like South Sudan, Somalia, and the Central African Republic experienced notably higher rates. Additionally, Rwanda and Zimbabwe also faced significant challenges during specific periods. This complex spatial distribution highlights the diverse nature of food security issues across the continent.During the study years, South Sudan, Somalia, and the Central African Republic stood out with consistently high rates of severe food insecurity. These regions face persistent and chronic food insecurity, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted interventions. In contrast, some countries witnessed fluctuations in severity over time, adding to the complexity of the food security landscape.

Global Spatial Autocorrelation of Severe Food Insecurity

The Global Moran’s I statistic revealed positive spatial clustering of severe food insecurity across the African continent. The values ranged from 0.22 to 0.285 and were statistically significant (P-value < 0.05), indicating that severe food insecurity is not randomly distributed. The degree of clustering was highest in 2020, suggesting that certain areas were more affected during this period. These findings have significant implications for understanding the concentration of food insecurity and guiding intervention efforts.

LISA Cluster & Outlier Analysis of Severe Food Insecurity

The LISA analysis provided a detailed view of local spatial associations. Red (high-high) and green (low-low) colors indicated spatial clustering of high and low values of severe food insecurity rates, respectively. For instance, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had high rates surrounded by similar high-prevalence countries. Conversely, Madagascar and Uganda showed low prevalence rates surrounded by low-prevalence neighbors. Orange (high-low) and yellow (low–high) regions represented spatial outliers, where a country’s rate differed from its neighbors. Gray areas indicated a lack of significant spatial autocorrelation, requiring different analytical approaches.

Detection of High-risk Areas (Hotspots) for Severe Food Insecurity

Using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, we identified hotspot areas for severe food insecurity. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic (2015–2021), Uganda (2015 and 2017–2020), Zambia (2019–2020), Angola (2019–2021), and Sierra Leone (2017) were identified as significant hotspots. These areas consistently faced elevated levels of food insecurity, emphasizing the need for immediate attention and intervention.

Temporal Cluster Analysis of Severe Food Insecurity

Figure 5 shows the varying rates of severe food insecurity among African countries over time. Most countries experienced an upward trend from 2015 to 2021, aligning with the continent’s overall prevalence increase. The temporal cluster analysis revealed that severe food insecurity was at a high risk from 2015 to 2017, with the highest levels recorded in Somalia. This period was characterized by political instability and inflation, contributing to the food insecurity crisis.

Spatiotemporal Cluster Analysis of Severe Food Insecurity

Kulldorff’s retrospective space–time scan statistic identified six major clustered areas across the African countries. The largest secondary statistically significant spatio-temporal cluster was located in the central region, with seven countries clustered during 2015–2017. The most likely significant spatio-temporal cluster was found in Somalia, East Africa, from 2015 to 2017, with a high number of severely food insecure people. These findings highlight the need for targeted intervention strategies to address the specific challenges faced by these regions.