In the upcoming Kentucky Derby 2025, while the favorite and long shots are clear, the horses in between create an intriguing puzzle for bettors. Journalism, with its impressive Grade 1 wins, is expected to lead the pack at post-time, potentially ranging from 2-1 to 4-1 odds. The challenge lies in predicting the betting dynamics for the next tier contenders such as Sandman, Sovereignty, and Rodriguez.
Among these mid-tier competitors, Sandman may attract more wagers due to his running style and celebrity connections. Meanwhile, Sovereignty and Rodriguez benefit from Hall of Fame trainers Bill Mott and Bob Baffert respectively. Tappan Street, despite defeating Sovereignty, seems to generate less buzz, yet remains a top contender. Luxor Cafe, arriving from Japan on a winning streak, adds another layer of complexity, given Japan's historical betting patterns. Finally, Owen Almighty and Flying Mohawk represent the longest shots, with unique factors influencing their potential popularity.
Front Runners and Mid-Tier Contenders
Journalism stands out as the leading contender with its recent victories, including the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This horse could command odds anywhere from 2-1 to 4-1. Following closely are Sandman, Sovereignty, and Rodriguez, forming the second tier. Sandman, Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, might gather significant interest thanks to co-owner Griffin Johnson’s social media influence and the horse's name association with iconic figures.
Delving deeper into this group, Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, has shown consistency as a three-year-old, making him a reliable choice. Rodriguez, under the guidance of Bob Baffert, brings fear as the pace factor to watch. Baffert’s return to the Derby after a hiatus since 2021 ensures wagering attention. Tappan Street, having won the Florida Derby against Sovereignty, also deserves consideration but lacks widespread buzz. These horses collectively form a complex web of betting opportunities where each has distinct advantages and challenges.
International Entries and Long Shots
Luxor Cafe enters the race from Japan, boasting a four-race win streak that includes triumphs over notable competition like Admire Daytona. Japanese horses often attract substantial bets, yet predicting Luxor Cafe's exact appeal remains uncertain. The ship from Japan introduces a wildcard element, with past performances by Forever Young and Admire Daytona capturing public imagination.
At the lower end of the odds spectrum lie Flying Mohawk and Owen Almighty, considered the longest shots. Owen Almighty, named after a popular 2022 baby name, might gain some traction among casual bettors. Conversely, Flying Mohawk, associated with a famous baseball player and trained by a Louisville native, holds potential appeal for local enthusiasts. Together, these horses represent the unpredictability inherent in the Derby, where even the least favored can surprise, adding excitement to the event.
