Grain Export Performance: Corn Leads, Soybeans Decline Amidst Chinese Absence

The recent USDA grain export inspection data highlights a varied landscape for agricultural commodity shipments. Corn exports maintained a leading position, though experiencing a moderate dip in weekly volume. In contrast, soybean shipments saw a notable decline, primarily influenced by China's sustained absence from the market. Wheat exports, while reduced from the previous week, still demonstrated robust figures. These trends underscore the fluctuating dynamics of international grain trade, particularly concerning demand from major global players.

According to the latest report released on Monday, covering the week ending July 10, corn export inspections reached 50.7 million bushels. This figure, while substantial, was nearly 18% lower than the preceding week's volume and fell within the lower range of analyst projections, which were between 47.2 million and 59.1 million bushels. Despite this weekly decrease, cumulative corn export totals for the 2024-25 marketing year remain considerably higher than the previous year, now standing at 2.276 billion bushels. Mexico emerged as the top destination for U.S. corn shipments last week, receiving 13.1 million bushels, followed by Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and Taiwan.

Conversely, soybean exports presented a less optimistic picture, totaling only 5.4 million bushels. This represents a reduction of more than 50% from the previous week and was below all analyst expectations, which had predicted volumes between 7.3 million and 18.4 million bushels. The persistent absence of China, traditionally a significant buyer accounting for a substantial portion of weekly soybean movements, was a major contributing factor to this downturn. Nevertheless, the cumulative soybean export figures for the 2024-25 marketing year continue to slightly exceed the pace of the previous year, amounting to 1.705 billion bushels. Mexico was also the primary recipient of U.S. soybeans last week, with 1.2 million bushels, trailed by Egypt, Japan, Indonesia, and Colombia. Sorghum exports recorded no inspections for the week, with cumulative totals for the current marketing year less than half of last year's volume, at 76.5 million bushels.

Wheat exports, while experiencing a moderate decrease from the prior week, still recorded a solid 16.2 million bushels. This volume was at the higher end of analyst forecasts, which ranged from 11.0 million to 18.4 million bushels. For the nascent 2025-26 marketing year, cumulative wheat exports are slightly below last year's level, currently at 83.9 million bushels. Mexico was the leading destination for U.S. wheat, receiving 6.1 million bushels, followed by the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, and Japan.

In summary, the most recent grain export data illustrates a mixed bag for agricultural trade, with corn demonstrating resilience, while soybeans face headwinds due to the absence of key international buyers, particularly China. Wheat exports, though moderating, maintain a steady flow, showcasing the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of global commodity markets.