According to a recent report, this year has witnessed the peak of petrol cars on British roads. However, an astonishing transformation is on the horizon as these petrol-powered vehicles are set to plummet by more than 40% over the next decade. Auto Trader's latest motoring forecast presents some eye-opening figures. This year, there were 18.7m petrol-powered cars on the roads, but from 2025 onwards, their numbers will steadily decrease, reaching 11.1m by 2034. This indicates a significant shift in the automotive landscape.

Electric Vehicles: The Future of British Motoring

The online vehicle platform Auto Trader expects a "seismic shift" towards electric vehicles (EVs) in the next 10 years. Currently, there are 1.25m EVs on the roads in 2024, but this number is set to soar to 13.7m by 2034. The EV share of the new car market is also expected to rise from about 18% in 2025 to 23%. This growth is driven by improving affordability. Despite the UK government's Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which aims for 22% of new car sales to be battery-electric vehicles in 2024 and 100% by 2035, the current EV share is still far below the target. 1: The rise of EVs is not only significant in terms of numbers but also in terms of market share. As more and more consumers become aware of the environmental benefits and technological advancements of electric vehicles, the demand for them is increasing. This shift is also being supported by the continuous improvement in charging infrastructure across the country. 2: Auto Trader's data shows that the gap between EV and petrol or diesel vehicles is closing. One in three used EVs on their platform is priced under £20,000, and a growing number of three- to five-year-old EVs cost the same or less than their petrol or diesel counterparts. This makes EVs more accessible to a wider range of consumers.

Challenges and Concerns

Carmakers and retailers have expressed concerns about the ZEV mandate. They fear that it is putting jobs at risk at UK vehicle factories and piling pressure on manufacturers. The high costs of EVs have led to a flagging demand for them, and the lack of charging infrastructure across the country is also a significant concern. 1: For example, last week, Vauxhall owner Stellantis announced the closure of its van-making factory in Luton, putting 1,100 jobs at risk. The company cited the "stringent" UK zero-emission vehicle mandate as one of the reasons for the decision. This highlights the challenges faced by the automotive industry in transitioning to electric vehicles. 2: Another challenge is the constrained supply of new cars. Despite the expected increase in new car sales next year, it is still 14% below the 2019 peak. This indicates that there is a need to address the supply chain issues to meet the growing demand for both petrol and electric vehicles.

Used Car Market and Resilience

The group at Auto Trader noted that the demand for used cars continues to remain resilient. It is expected to edge up from 7.61m sales this year to 7.7m in 2025. Secondhand EVs are becoming more popular as their prices pare back. This shows that the used car market is adapting to the changing automotive landscape and providing consumers with more options. 1: The used car market is playing a crucial role in the transition to electric vehicles. As more consumers opt for new EVs, the supply of used petrol and diesel cars is increasing. This creates opportunities for consumers who are looking for more affordable options. 2: The fact that the gap between EV and petrol or diesel vehicles is closing in the used car market also indicates that EVs are becoming more mainstream. Consumers are realizing the long-term benefits of owning an electric vehicle and are willing to consider them even in the used car market.

Impact on the Automotive Industry

The decline of petrol cars and the rise of electric vehicles are having a profound impact on the automotive industry. Carmakers and retailers need to adapt to these changes to stay competitive. 1: This includes investing in electric vehicle technology, expanding charging infrastructure, and addressing the concerns of consumers about the cost and availability of EVs. It also means rethinking production processes and supply chains to meet the growing demand for electric vehicles. 2: The automotive industry is at a crossroads, and the decisions made in the coming years will shape its future. By embracing the shift towards electric vehicles and addressing the challenges along the way, the industry can ensure a sustainable and prosperous future.