Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2024, leaving many to wonder if its price can continue its upward trajectory. This milestone year for cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, has seen significant price surges and oscillations. With just a few weeks remaining in 2024, Bitcoin's price has skyrocketed by 140% and reached a remarkable $100,000 per coin. Although it has since fluctuated around this mark, there are numerous reasons to remain optimistic about its future.

Unraveling Bitcoin's Path in a Changing Regulatory Landscape

Shaking Things Up at the Securities and Exchange Commission

Gary Gensler stands out as one of the most fascinating figures in the financial realm. With a background as a former investment banker at Goldman Sachs, he initially focused on mergers and acquisitions before venturing into various trading and treasury operations roles. In the late 1990s, he left Wall Street to pursue a career in public service, serving under Presidents Clinton, Obama, and now Biden. Since 2021, he has held the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).On November 20th, the SEC issued a statement announcing that Chairman Gensler will be stepping down from his role at the SEC on January 20th. While this may seem like a retirement, the timing is significant as January 20, 2025, is president-elect Trump's inauguration day.

A New Regulatory Landscape Could Be on the Way

In our view, one of the main reasons for Gensler's departure from the SEC is his stance on the crypto landscape compared to that of president-elect Trump. Trump appears to be more open-minded towards crypto legislation and is listening to ideas put forward by prominent executives at crypto companies like Coinbase. Although the crypto industry made some progress under Gensler, such as the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, we believe the incoming administration will be more pro-crypto from a regulatory perspective.The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) is a crucial step in advancing crypto regulation. Passed by the House of Representatives in May, this bill aims to establish more comprehensive guidelines for crypto regulations. One of its key components is determining how the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will oversee digital assets.President-elect Trump has nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to succeed Gensler as Chair of the SEC. Additionally, the Republican Party will have majority control in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This dynamic should facilitate Atkins' cabinet approval process and enable Trump to quickly sign the FIT21 into law.In addition to these factors, another significant change under the new Trump administration could be the imposition of tariffs. While it is too early to determine the exact impact on the economy, there is a real possibility that the cost of goods and services may rise in the short term, weakening consumer purchasing power and potentially slowing down economic growth.This situation would directly affect businesses and the stock market. If companies start to show signs of declining sales or weaker profit margins, the stock market could experience a sell-off. During periods of economic uncertainty, investors often turn to alternative assets. Given the growing adoption of crypto, it would not be surprising to see prominent cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin start to move upwards as investors seek to diversify their portfolios.

Will Bitcoin Be Higher or Lower One Year from Now?

The chart below illustrates the price of Bitcoin throughout 2024. After a brief initial surge, Bitcoin's price movements were relatively stable during the spring and summer. It was not until around the time of the election that Bitcoin began to experience a significant upward trend.Bitcoin Price data by YChartsWe believe that the recent momentum driving Bitcoin indicates optimism about how the incoming administration will positively impact and transform the crypto landscape.While we cannot predict with certainty the direction in which Bitcoin's price will move, history suggests that it should continue to surge under the new Trump administration. With new legislation on the horizon and a more pro-crypto administration taking office, we are cautiously optimistic that Bitcoin's price will continue to rise over the next year.Adam Spatacco holds positions in Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.