Uncover the Bowl Game Winners with Data

The College Football Postseason Setup

The 12-team playoff has added a new dimension to the college football postseason. But regardless of the format, it's still bowl season, and that means it's time to pick some winners. I use my "Quality Game" system to make my picks, which takes into account a team's performance in each game rather than just their win-loss record.

For example, a team can get a point total ranging from 3 (a road win over a ranked team) to -3 (a blowout loss to an unranked team) for each game. By adding up all the games a team plays, we can determine their QG score and make a more informed prediction.

The "Quality Game" Algorithm

I'm looking at how many times a team played well when they took the field. A QG can be a 40-point win over an unranked team or a 3-point loss to a ranked team, both getting 1 point. A narrow win over an unranked team gets -1. It's similar to looking at a college football team's ERA rather than their win-loss record.

The scoring system is as follows: 3 points for a road win over a ranked team, 2 points for a home or neutral win over a ranked team, 1 point for a lopsided win (21 or more) over an unranked team, 1 point for a narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team, 0 points for a regular win (9-20 points) over an unranked team, 0 points for a regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team, -1 point for a narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team, -1 point for a lopsided loss (21 points or more) to a ranked team, -2 points for a loss (20 points or less) to an unranked team, and -3 points for a lopsided loss (21 or more) to an unranked team.

Important Caveats

A "ranked team" is a team ranked in the final college football Top 25 playoff rankings. If a team played a non-FBS school and lost, it's -3. This system is strictly data-based and does not take into account players skipping bowl games or injuries.

The Locks

There are five bowl games with a QG point differential of 10 or more. These are the games where you can make your highest-confidence picks. For example, in the Sun Bowl, Louisville (5) is favored over Washington (-9). In the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Kansas State (3) is favored over Rutgers (-10), and so on.

The 11 Games Vegas Has Wrong

This is where you can win your pool. The QG system disagrees with Vegas on 11 games this year. For instance, in the L.A. Bowl, UNLV (2) is favored over Cal (-5), while Vegas has Cal as a 3.5-point favorite. These are the upset picks that could give you an edge over your opponent.

Did the Committee Get It Right?

With 12 teams in the playoff, it's interesting to see if the top 12 teams in the QG system match the committee's selections. Three teams left out of the top 12 finished inside the QG top 12, including a surprising four-loss team. This shows that the QG system can provide a different perspective on which teams are truly performing well.

Other Totals of Note

Ole Miss finished with a QG score of (3), Miami landed at (2), and Army has a score of (3). If Army beats Navy by 21 or more this weekend, they could add one point to join the four-point club.

All the Bowl Picks

Here are the QG picks for every bowl game in chronological order. The team listed first is who you should pick. For example, in the Salute to Veterans Bowl, South Alabama (-11) is favored over Western Michigan (-13). In the Frisco Bowl, Memphis (-6) is favored over West Virginia (-14), and so on.

The Playoff Games

We don't know the matchups yet for the second round of the playoffs, but here are the numbers to help you with your picks. In the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State (8) is favored over SMU(5)/Penn State (4). In the Peach Bowl, Texas (5)/Clemson (4) is favored over Arizona State (-2), and so on.

So there you have it. All the picks, all the reasoning, and all the data to help you win your bowl picks office pool. I'd love to hear from you with any feedback. Reach me at shad.powers@desertsun.com.