In the upcoming Kentucky Derby, Journalism by Michael McCarthy is expected to be a strong contender. This horse ticks all the right boxes and may be the most formidable favorite since American Pharoah in 2015. Sovereignty also emerges as a significant competitor. Despite the predictability at the top, analyzing the entire field remains crucial for uncovering hidden value plays that could yield substantial returns in exotic wagers.

Historically, even when the race seems predictable, betting on the trifecta or superfecta can be highly rewarding due to the large number of participants. When American Pharoah triumphed in 2015, the trifecta paid $202 with three of the top four horses finishing in the top three spots. In 2016, Nyquist's victory resulted in a superfecta payout of $542 with the top four choices finishing in order. The inclusion of just one longshot in the top three can significantly increase payouts. Thus, an in-depth analysis of the entire field is necessary to identify potential value plays beyond the obvious contenders.

Journalism: The Leading Hope

Among the contenders, Journalism stands out as the fastest horse based on numbers and also possesses the best style suited for the Kentucky Derby. Positioned mid-pack behind a swift pace, he benefits from first run on the big closers. Demonstrating his prowess, he overtook a lone speed in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and overcame a tough trip to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Unlike typical grinders, Journalism moves with quick, athletic strides. As a son of Curlin, this horse is undeniably a top choice for the Derby.

This remarkable colt has shown incredible resilience and adaptability. His performance in the San Felipe Stakes demonstrated his ability to overcome challenges, while his relentless rally in the Santa Anita Derby further solidified his reputation. Typically, such closers built for the Kentucky Derby distance are known for their grinding abilities, but Journalism transcends this stereotype with his athletic strides. There is no need to overthink this year’s Derby, as Journalism clearly dominates the top slot. With a proven track record and consistent improvement, he is poised to deliver an outstanding performance.

Hidden Gems Among the Field

Beyond the leading contenders, several horses present intriguing opportunities for bettors seeking value. Sovereignty, the son of Into Mischief, looks set to relish the added distance in the Kentucky Derby. His powerful late kick was evident in both the Street Sense Stakes (G3) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Under the guidance of Bill Mott, who understands the bigger picture, Sovereignty should be primed for his best race when it matters most. With plenty of pace to run into, he is expected to fly late.

Luxor Cafe, a Japanese import, should not be underestimated and offers an interesting price play. His last start in the Fukuryu Stakes showcased a great turn of foot, indicating continuous improvement. Having defeated Admire Daytona twice in Japan, Luxor Cafe appears well-adapted to left-handed courses. As a son of American Pharoah, he looks ready to thrive in American racing. Other notable horses include Grande, Sandman, Final Gambit, Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Burnham Square, Publisher, American Promise, Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Admire Daytona, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, East Avenue, Flying Mohawk, Render Judgment, and Owen Almighty, each offering unique prospects for those willing to delve deeper into the field.