Unleashing the Potential: Exploiting Weaknesses in the Texans' Defense

Nov 10, 2024 at 9:00 PM
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As the NFL season reaches its midpoint, the Week 10 slate promises some thrilling prime-time matchups, including a tantalizing clash between the Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans on "Sunday Night Football." While the spread and total may not offer overwhelming value, our expert analysis has uncovered two player prop angles that could prove to be highly lucrative for savvy bettors.

Seizing Opportunities: Exploiting the Texans' Defensive Vulnerabilities

Jahmyr Gibbs: Unleashing the Big Play

The Texans' defense, led by the impressive DeMeco Ryans, has been a force to be reckoned with this season, ranking second in defensive DVOA. However, their Achilles' heel appears to be their susceptibility to explosive runs. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Texans have allowed the third-highest rate of explosive runs and the most yards after contact per attempt in the NFL.Furthermore, the Texans' struggles in the open field are well-documented, as they rank 21st in open field yards allowed, which FTN defines as yards that running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. This plays directly into the strengths of the Lions' dynamic rookie running back, Jahmyr Gibbs.Gibbs, an elite talent who benefits from running behind the league's best offensive line by adjusted line yards, has been a home-run hitter all season. He leads all qualified running backs with an absurd 9.7 percent explosive rush rate and ranks fifth in breakaway run rate, according to Pro Football Focus. Gibbs has cleared the 15.5-yard mark in 18 of his 26 career games (69 percent) and six of eight games this season (75 percent).Given the Texans' defensive vulnerabilities, this matchup presents the perfect storm for Gibbs to break off a long rush at some point. With the Texans allowing a running back to clear this number in six of their past seven games, the odds are heavily stacked in Gibbs' favor.

C.J. Stroud: Utilizing His Legs to Overcome Passing Woes

The Texans' passing offense has faced significant challenges in recent weeks, with the potential absence of wide receiver Nico Collins further complicating matters. In their previous outing against the Jets, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud struggled mightily, completing just 11 of his 30 pass attempts.Stroud's struggles can be partly attributed to the constant pressure he faced, as he was pressured on 55.6 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF. While the Lions' pass rush may not be as potent as it was earlier in the season due to Aidan Hutchinson's injury, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is known for his aggressive blitzing approach, with the Lions ranking sixth in blitz rate this year.However, Stroud has shown the ability to utilize his legs to make plays, recording 17-plus rushing yards in four of his past six games. This matchup could be conducive to Stroud's running game, as the Lions lead the league in man coverage rate (43.7 percent), which strongly correlates to quarterback rushing yards. The Lions have also allowed 29-plus rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks in five of their past seven games.With the Texans' passing attack facing significant challenges and the Lions' defensive scheme potentially opening up opportunities for Stroud to use his legs, the over on his rushing yards prop could prove to be a savvy play.