On Thursday, June 27, 2025, the states offering the most competitive 30-year refinance rates were identified as New York, California, Florida, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and Washington, with average rates ranging from 6.83% to 6.95%. Conversely, West Virginia, Alaska, Washington, D.C., Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas, Hawaii, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Utah experienced the highest rates, fluctuating between 7.01% and 7.05%. These regional differences underscore the dynamic nature of the mortgage market, where local economic conditions, lender strategies, and regulatory frameworks play a significant role in determining rates.

Refinance rates are not uniform across the United States; they are shaped by a confluence of factors unique to each state. Local lenders tailor their offerings based on regional credit profiles, typical loan amounts, and specific state regulations. Moreover, varying risk assessment approaches among lending institutions contribute to the diverse rate landscape observed nationwide. This intricate interplay means that even within a generally favorable market, rates can differ considerably from one area to another.

A notable development in the broader market is the national average for 30-year refinance mortgages, which saw a decline of 2 basis points on Thursday, extending a four-day downward trend totaling 11 points. This brought the average to 6.98%, marking the first time rates have fallen below 7% since April 4. While this represents a significant dip from recent highs, it's worth noting that rates had reached a 2025 low of 6.71% in March and a two-year low of 6.01% last September. These fluctuations highlight the sensitivity of refinance rates to various economic indicators and policy shifts.

The movements in mortgage rates are deeply influenced by a complex web of macroeconomic factors. Key among these are the bond market's performance, particularly the yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which often serve as a benchmark for long-term interest rates. The monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve, including its bond-buying programs and efforts to fund government-backed mortgages, also exert considerable influence. Competition within the mortgage lending industry and across different loan products further shapes the rates available to consumers. Because numerous variables can change simultaneously, pinpointing a single cause for rate shifts can be challenging.

For instance, much of 2021 saw relatively low mortgage rates, partly due to the Federal Reserve's substantial bond purchases aimed at stimulating the economy during the pandemic. However, a significant shift began in November 2021, when the Fed initiated a gradual reduction of its bond acquisitions, culminating in a complete cessation by March 2022. Subsequently, from that period until July 2023, the Fed aggressively increased the federal funds rate in an effort to combat high inflation. While the federal funds rate doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, its rapid and substantial increases during 2022 and 2023 had a profound indirect impact, pushing mortgage rates significantly upward.

After maintaining the federal funds rate at its peak for nearly 14 months starting in July 2023, the central bank announced a 0.50 percentage point rate cut in September, followed by additional quarter-point reductions in November and December. However, in its fourth meeting of the new year, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, indicating a potential pause in further reductions for several months. With eight rate-setting meetings scheduled annually, this suggests the possibility of multiple announcements where rates remain steady throughout 2025.

Given the significant variations in rates, it is crucial for prospective borrowers to thoroughly investigate and compare offers from multiple lenders. The rates presented in this report are national and state averages, derived from the Zillow Mortgage API, and are based on specific criteria such as an 80% loan-to-value ratio and a credit score range of 680–739. These averages provide a realistic expectation for borrowers but may differ from highly publicized "teaser rates" that are often designed to attract attention and may not reflect the actual rates available to typical applicants. Ultimately, the rate secured by an individual will depend on their unique financial profile, including credit score, income, and other qualifying factors.