The Ultimate Guide to the 2025 Kentucky Oaks and Derby Long Shots

Apr 23, 2025 at 1:38 PM
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As anticipation builds for the upcoming Kentucky Oaks and Derby, two seasoned turf writers, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman, dive deep into their analysis of the top contenders. With the Oaks set to crown its new queen and the Derby preparing for a thrilling race, these experts share their insights on standout fillies and long-shot colts that could make history.

Unveiling the Hidden Gems in America's Most Prestigious Races

Predicting Triumph: The Frontrunners of the Kentucky Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks, often overshadowed by its male counterpart, is a spectacle of grace and speed. This year, the field boasts an array of talented fillies, each with unique strengths and stories. Leading the pack is Good Cheer, a filly whose consistency has been unmatched in her six career starts. Under the guidance of trainer Brad Cox, who previously triumphed with Shedaresthedevil and Monomoy Girl, Good Cheer presents a formidable challenge to her rivals.Quietside, another contender, has captured attention with her victories at Oaklawn. Her recent performances suggest she is peaking at just the right time. Trainer Kenny McPeek’s Take Charge Milady also enters the race with a compelling narrative. Having shown resilience in previous contests, she aims to replicate McPeek's success from last year.

Strategic Insights: Analyzing Key Competitors

Beyond the frontrunners, several other fillies warrant consideration. La Cara, trained by Mark Casse, brings versatility to the table with wins in both front-running and off-the-pace scenarios. Her Churchill workout indicates she is prepared for the challenge ahead. Meanwhile, Tenma, hailing from Bob Baffert’s stable, carries a record of four graded stakes victories. Despite facing larger fields than usual, her potential remains undeniable.Fondly and Simply Joking represent intriguing wild cards. Fondly, despite limited experience, earned a spot through her victory in the Virginia Oaks. Simply Joking, a Pennsylvania-bred under Whit Beckman, seeks to defy expectations after a commendable second-place finish in the Fantasy. Both fillies embody the unpredictable nature of horse racing.

Derby Dreams: Exploring Promising Long Shots

Transitioning to the Kentucky Derby, Brian and Matt highlight seven promising long shots. Luxor Café, representing Japan, emerges as a strong contender. His impressive performances in Japan, coupled with strategic preparation, position him favorably. Tiztastic, trained by Steve Asmussen, demonstrated dominance in the Louisiana Derby, suggesting he might thrive in a fast-paced environment.Burnham Square, known for his closing prowess, could benefit from a strong early pace. Trained by Ian Wilkes, this son of Liam’s Map possesses stamina crucial for the grueling Derby distance. Grande, under Todd Pletcher, displayed remarkable grit in the Wood Memorial. With John Velazquez aboard, he may surprise many with his performance.

Underdogs with Potential: Final Gambit and Publisher

Final Gambit, though inexperienced on dirt, captivates with his versatile sire lineage and impressive workouts at Churchill Downs. His ability to sustain effort throughout races makes him a candidate worth watching. Publisher, another Asmussen trainee, showcased significant improvement with blinkers added. Flavien Prat’s expertise further enhances his chances.Coal Battle rounds out the list of long shots. Despite a disappointing finish in the Arkansas Derby, his overall record suggests he may be poised for redemption. Known for his endurance and tactical speed, Coal Battle could seize the opportunity to lead the charge into the homestretch.

Kentucky Legends: A Legacy in the Making

As the historic twin spires prepare to welcome the next generation of champions, the anticipation is palpable. Each filly and colt carries the hopes and dreams of trainers, jockeys, and fans alike. Whether it's the elegance of the Kentucky Oaks or the drama of the Derby, these races promise unforgettable moments. With expert analysis guiding predictions, the stage is set for an exhilarating showcase of horsemanship and athleticism.