Tesla's Upcoming Q2 Deliveries: Expectations and Market Dynamics

Jun 28, 2025 at 10:00 AM
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This article examines the upcoming second-quarter delivery report for Tesla, delving into analyst expectations, factors influencing current demand, and the broader implications for the company's stock performance.

Navigating the Road Ahead: Tesla's Performance in a Shifting Landscape

Anticipating Second Quarter Deliveries: A Critical Juncture

Tesla is poised to unveil its second-quarter vehicle delivery data this Wednesday, with industry analysts largely forecasting a significant year-over-year decline. Projections indicate deliveries just below 400,000 units, marking a 10% drop from the previous year's figures. Concurrently, production is expected to see a slight increase, reaching approximately 434,200 vehicles.

Factors Influencing Current Demand and Market Sentiment

The electric vehicle giant has experienced a noticeable slowdown in sales, particularly in major markets such as the United States and Europe. This downturn is partly attributed to a public backlash stemming from CEO Elon Musk's political affiliations and recent high-profile executive departures, including Omead Afshar, who oversaw key sales and manufacturing operations. These internal and external pressures have contributed to Tesla's first-quarter deliveries falling short of initial estimates.

Analyst Insights: The Potential for a Q2 Low Point and Future Recovery

Despite the current challenges, some financial experts, including those from Deepwater Asset Management, suggest that the second quarter could represent the nadir for Tesla's delivery numbers. They anticipate a subsequent rebound in the latter half of the year, driven by an expected improvement in brand perception. However, analysts from RBC Capital Markets offer a more conservative outlook, forecasting lower delivery figures due to consumers potentially delaying purchases in anticipation of a more affordably priced Tesla model, which Musk had indicated would launch in the first half of the year.

Beyond Deliveries: The Emergence of New Strategic Priorities

While delivery numbers remain a crucial metric, other market observers, such as Baird analysts, highlight a shift in focus. They point to the recent introduction of Tesla's robotaxi service as a new and potentially more significant driver of investor enthusiasm, possibly overshadowing concerns about immediate delivery figures, even if the more accessible model faces delays.

Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings: A Mixed Outlook

The investment community remains divided on Tesla's stock performance. Visible Alpha's compilation of analyst ratings reveals a mix of "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Price targets vary widely, from $160 to $500, with an average target price around $306. As of recent market close, Tesla's shares have experienced a loss of approximately 20% in 2025, trading just over $323 per share.