Tesla's Soaring Deliveries: A Harbinger of Continued Success

Tesla (TSLA) is poised to deliver its third-quarter results as early as Wednesday, a development that could propel the stock even higher after its recent impressive gains. Wall Street analysts are anticipating robust delivery numbers, with some predicting Tesla's best-ever performance in China, a crucial market for the electric vehicle (EV) giant.

Powering Ahead: Tesla's Delivery Dominance

Surpassing Expectations

Wall Street experts forecast Tesla to deliver around 461,000 electric vehicles globally in the third quarter, a sequential improvement from the second quarter's approximately 444,000 vehicles. While this figure would fall short of the 466,000 EVs delivered a year ago, it would still represent a significant achievement for the company. Analysts are also projecting an annual delivery estimate of 1.79 million units, underscoring Tesla's continued growth trajectory.

Riding the Wave of Optimism

Tesla's stock has already seen a remarkable surge, rising over 20% in the past month. This upward momentum has been fueled by a combination of factors, including the anticipation surrounding the company's upcoming robotaxi event on October 10 and positive news from the Chinese market, indicating a resurgence in sales.

Assuaging Concerns

A strong third-quarter delivery report would help alleviate fears of a "notably lower" annual vehicle growth rate, which Tesla had previously warned about after the first quarter. Wall Street analysts have largely embraced the narrative of improving sales, with some even upgrading their expectations.

Analysts' Perspectives

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter has raised his delivery estimates, now projecting 459,000 EVs globally, with a full-year forecast of 1.75 million units. While this estimate is slightly below the consensus, Potter believes Tesla may report its best quarter ever in China.Barclays analyst Dan Levy is even more optimistic, forecasting deliveries topping 470,000 units in the third quarter, easily surpassing estimates. Levy and Barclays cite July data for global EV sales and August registrations and production data from China as the basis for their bullish outlook.

Profitability Rebound

Tesla bull Dan Ives at Wedbush predicts that not only will sales improve in the third quarter, but profitability may also start to rebound after a steep slide over the past year. Ives believes that the company's price cuts are now mostly in the rearview mirror, removing a margin overhang that has plagued Tesla's performance.

Cybertruck Contribution

Interestingly, analysts are also starting to model sales for the Cybertruck, Tesla's highly anticipated electric pickup truck. S&P Global Mobility data shows that Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, the most recent month for which the firm has data collected, with year-to-date sales hitting 17,722.Deutsche Bank predicts the Cybertruck, which is currently only available in the US, will see sales reach 13,500 in the third quarter. While this figure would only represent 3% of Tesla's overall sales, it is a growing contribution that could make the difference between a sales beat or miss for the company.