Stock Market Dynamics and Earnings Reports

Nov 16, 2024 at 2:34 PM
In the coming week, the stock market may experience a bit of tranquility, allowing investors to focus intently on Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings report. Simultaneously, the holiday shopping season is just around the corner, with Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) also set to report, kicking off the late-earnings season frenzy of retail reports. Moreover, news from Washington is likely to continue as President-elect Donald Trump assembles his administration. Investors will closely observe China's EV war, and bitcoin remains a subject of great interest to see if it approaches the $100,000 mark.

Navigating the Stock Market Amidst Earnings and Events

Stock To Watch: On The Lookout For Handles

In the latest week, the stock market witnessed a pullback. Thus, investors need to be cautious about new buys but should still be on the hunt for setups. For instance, Atlassian (TEAM), based in Australia, is nearing a buy point from a 48%-deep cup base. However, it would be ideal to see a handle form after such a significant advance. HubSpot (HUBS) peeked above a buy point and could potentially forge a high handle on its own cup base. Nuclear play Vistra (VST) is near highs in a short consolidation following its September breakout. Deckers (DECK) is pausing in a buy zone and just below its highs from May. Burlington Stores (BURL) is just below a buy point with its own earnings on the horizon and key rivals due in the coming week.

Economic Calendar: Housing In Focus As Rates Rise

After a remarkable start to November, investors are now looking towards a light week of economic news. The main focus will be on housing, although the numbers will be somewhat dated due to the six-week climb in mortgage rates, which have returned to 7% for the first time since early July. The NAHB Housing Market Index, to be released on Monday, will gauge builder sentiment regarding the outlook and current homebuyer traffic. Housing starts and building permits for October will be reported on Tuesday. Existing home sales will be announced on Thursday. S&P Global's preliminary indexes for the manufacturing and services sector, to be released on Friday, will provide an early indication of the pace of economic growth in November.

Semiconductors: All Eyes On Nvidia’s Blackwell

AI chipmaker and market leader Nvidia is set to report its fiscal third-quarter results late Wednesday. However, Wall Street is more focused on its guidance for Q4 as this will be the first quarter to include sales of its next-generation AI processor, Blackwell. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang last month described Blackwell demand as "insane." For Q3, analysts are forecasting earnings of 75 cents per share, an 88% year-over-year increase, on sales of $33.06 billion, a 82% growth. For the fiscal fourth-quarter, Wall Street currently expects Nvidia to earn 82 cents per share, a 58% increase, on sales of $36.94 billion, a 67% growth. Nvidia shares are currently in a buy zone.

Retail Earnings: A Big Box Name On A Roll

Walmart and Target are set to kick off the retail reporting season with significant reports on Monday and Tuesday. Analysts expect a second quarter of decelerating growth from Walmart. Despite this, the stock has surged 60% this year due to its heavy exposure to staples and groceries. Target, on the other hand, has lagged with an 8% advance.

Trump Trade Fades, A $100,000 Bitcoin?

The stock market rally saw solid weekly losses on the major indexes, with small caps suffering more significant declines after the huge Trump election gains in the previous week. There were numerous big earnings winners and losers. Treasury yields rose steadily to five-month highs amid stalled inflation data and Fed chief Jerome Powell signaling caution on future rate cuts. Bitcoin prices cooled to near $90,000 early Saturday after rallying to record highs above $93,000 on Wednesday. Bernstein analysts in a Monday note reported by The Block urged investors to add crypto industry exposure "as soon as possible." They also remain "confident" in their $200,000 bitcoin price target by the end of 2025. Other cryptocurrency analysts have set $100,000 as the next major bitcoin price target, perhaps by year-end.

Discount Retailers: Burlington faces high hurdle

Much of the week's retail attention will be on reports from Walmart and Target. However, the late-season stream of retail reports also includes Ross Stores (ROST), TJX (TJX), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), and others. After a couple of strong years, earnings growth is expected to slow across the group. Both TJX and BJ's are just below buy points in their bases. Therefore, if they surprise to the upside, it could have a significant impact. TJX is up 28% so far this year, while BJ's has a 98% gain.

Automakers: A Checkup On China’s EV war

Chinese EV startup Xpeng Motors (XPEV) reports early Tuesday, followed by Nio (NIO) on Wednesday. Analysts expect Xpeng to sharply narrow losses on an 18% revenue gain. This would be the weakest topline growth in four quarters. For Nio, analysts anticipate narrower losses on a 1% sales dip, partly due to tough comparisons. In the midst of an ongoing price war, both startups have launched cheap new EVs that could potentially drive growth. As consumer tastes shift, China's startup challengers to BYD (BYDDF), Tesla (TSLA), and Li Auto (LI) are also entering hybrid gas-electric vehicles. In October, EVs and plug-in hybrids accounted for more than half of overall vehicle sales, marking the fourth consecutive month that "new energy vehicles" outsold gasoline cars in the country.

Conferences: Inspecting Financial Stability

The Cleveland Federal Reserve's 12th annual Financial Stability Conference will take place on Thursday and Friday, exploring potential risks from advancements in AI and interconnected financial systems. In San Francisco, the QCon International Software Development Conference runs throughout the week and focuses on tech innovation and software engineering. This conference often provides insights into trends affecting technology stocks as well as the broader digital economy.

Stock Market Earnings Briefs

Trip.com (TCOM), China's largest online travel agency, reports earnings on Monday. Analysts expect earnings to dip slightly to an adjusted 96 cents per share while sales rise 12% to $2.16 billion. As of Friday, TCOM stock was hovering near the buy zone of a cup-with-handle base and is up 65% this year.BellRing Brands (BRBR) has rallied in 14 of the past 15 weeks and is up 31% year-to-date heading into its fiscal Q4 earnings report on Tuesday morning. Analysts expect the health-protein supplements maker to report a mild slowdown in earnings and revenue. Meeting estimates would result in a 45% EPS gain for this year, and analysts foresee a 10% gain in the year ahead.Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports fiscal Q1 earnings after the market close on Wednesday. Analysts estimate adjusted EPS of $1.48, a 7% increase, with revenue growing 13% to $2.121. Two other financial metrics for the cybersecurity firm are annual recurring revenue from cloud computing and remaining performance obligations. Analysts project fiscal Q1 ARR of $4.365 billion and RPO of $12.46 billion. Palo Alto shares are up 32% this year and in a buy range from a nine-month base.Snowflake (SNOW) reports third-quarter earnings on Wednesday. In August, shares tumbled due to weak guidance. For the October quarter, analysts project 15 cents profit per share on an adjusted basis, a 39% decline from a year earlier. Revenue is expected to grow 22% to $899 million. Concerns over competition from privately held Databricks amid a slow ramp of artificial intelligence products have put pressure on Snowflake stock.Intuit (INTU) will post its fiscal first-quarter results late Thursday. Analysts expect the tax-prep and financial software maker's earnings to slip 4% on a 5% sales gain. Shares are in a buy range.