The Resilient Growth of Walmart: Navigating Inflation and Beyond

Nov 18, 2024 at 2:26 PM
Walmart (WMT) is set to continue its upward trajectory as inflation-weary shoppers seek value. With Wall Street anticipating gains across all product categories and income cohorts, the world's largest retailer is in a prime position. Bank of America analyst Robby Ohmes highlights the "strong value offering & high digital convenience" that continues to resonate with consumers.

Quarterly Expectations and Performance

For the upcoming Q3 FY2025, the Street predicts Walmart will post revenue of $160.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.53. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane notes that groceries, which make up 60% of US sales, maintain an edge in value, with prices about 10% to 12% cheaper on average. This strength is evident in its health and wellness segment as well. LSEG Director of Consumer Research Jharonne Martis emphasizes how Walmart's strategy is giving Amazon a run for its money. "They're providing consumers with the flexibility to shop as they desire, whether through mobile ordering and in-store pickup on the way home or direct delivery from the store to their homes," Martis explains.The retailer's shares have outperformed its peers, surging more than 60% year-to-date compared to Target's (TGT) 7% increase and the S&P 500's 24% rise. Walmart is also exploring alternate revenue streams like Walmart+ membership and Walmart Connect advertising. McShane believes the e-commerce marketplace is "on the verge of profitability." She further states, "There is greater investor support for these alternative revenue streams that Walmart is pursuing. They are faster-growing and higher-margin businesses that will drive better long-term profitability for the company."Ohmes points out that with a shortened selling season, five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to last year, online spending is likely to increase, benefiting large digital and omni-channel players like Walmart. CFO John David Rainey told Yahoo Finance following the previous quarterly report that back-to-school sales have started well, which is a good indicator for the holiday season.Here are the expected figures for Walmart's 2025 third quarter compared to Q3 of the previous fiscal year according to Bloomberg consensus estimates:Revenue: $167.5 billion versus $160.8 billionAdjusted earnings per share: $0.53 versus $0.51Overall same-store US sales growth: 3.81% versus 4.70%Walmart US same-store sales growth: 3.68% versus 4.90%Traffic: 2.82% versus 3.40%Ticket growth: 1.20% versus 1.50%E-commerce growth: 2.22% versus 3.00%Sam's Club US same-store sales growth: 4.22% versus 2.90%—Brooke DiPalma is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @BrookeDiPalma or email her at bdipalma@yahoofinance.com.Click here for all the latest retail stock news and events to enhance your investing strategy.