The arrival of Donald Trump's administration in the United States has only served to reinforce the prevailing trend of the dollar's strength. Despite the political upheaval, the dollar's current upward trajectory remains a formidable force, with the euro and other major currencies struggling to counter its momentum.
Charting the Dollar's Dominance: A Comprehensive Analysis
The Euro's Struggle to Regain Footing
The euro has borne the brunt of the Republican victory in the United States, with the currency now flirting with its April lows of 1.0600, a critical level that could pave the way for a further decline towards the October 2023 low of 1.0498/68. Initial resistance for the euro lies around the 1.078 mark, indicating the challenges it faces in regaining its footing.The British Pound's Downward Trajectory
The British pound, also known as the "cable," has recently breached its 200-day moving average, a significant technical indicator. The currency is now facing resistance at the 1.2887 level, setting the stage for a potential further slide towards the April lows at 1.2300. This downward trend reflects the broader challenges facing the British economy and its currency in the post-Brexit landscape.The Yen and Swiss Franc's Continued Appreciation
Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have continued their advance against the dollar, with USD/JPY and USD/CHF heading towards 156.84 and 0.8890, respectively, or even 0.9037 in extension. This sustained appreciation of the yen and franc underscores the ongoing demand for safe-haven currencies amidst the global economic and political uncertainties.The Norwegian Krone's Resilience
The Norwegian krone has also been in the spotlight, with USD/NOK colliding with its May and July highs around 11.15, creating a trading range with 10.85 as support. A break below this level would be necessary to counterbalance the upward momentum that has been in place since last September, highlighting the krone's resilience in the face of the dollar's strength.The Canadian Dollar's Consolidation
The Canadian dollar, represented by the USD/CAD pair, is currently consolidating between the 1.3959/75 resistance and the 1.3834/18 support levels. A breach of the support would be required to trigger any meaningful consolidation, while a break above the resistance could confirm the end of the consolidation underway since the end of 2022 and pave the way for a move towards 1.45.The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars' Cautious Outlook
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) have both recorded new marginal lows, but have so far failed to reach their respective bearish targets at 0.6493 and 0.5876. The presence of the first positive signs, however, calls for caution on short strategies, which will be unwound if the 0.6670 and 0.6020 levels are breached.In conclusion, the arrival of the Trump administration in the United States has only served to reinforce the dollar's prevailing trend, with the euro, British pound, and other major currencies struggling to counter its momentum. The yen, franc, and Norwegian krone have shown resilience, while the Canadian dollar and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars remain in a cautious state. As the global economic and political landscape continues to evolve, the dollar's dominance is likely to remain a key factor in shaping the fortunes of various currencies.