Record High for Dow: Bessent's Nomination's Impact on U.S. Stocks
Nov 25, 2024 at 10:55 AM
In a significant development for the U.S. stock market, Dow contracts reached a record high on Monday. This surge was led by gains among U.S. stock index futures, driven by investor optimism following Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury Secretary in the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Donald Trump's decision to name Bessent late on Friday ended weeks of speculation. Some investment strategists believe that Bessent could take steps to restrain further government borrowing while still fulfilling fiscal and trade campaign pledges.
Bessent's Nomination: A Game Changer for U.S. Stocks
Investor Optimism and Bessent's Role
Joe McCann, CEO at Asymmetric in Miami, emphasized the beauty of Bessent's nomination. He stated that Bessent is a fiscal conservative, which sets the stage for more fiscal discipline. This, according to McCann, is something that the market is really going to welcome. The nomination has instilled confidence among investors, leading to significant gains in stock futures.The domestically focused small-caps index futures also rose by 1%, with the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds leading declines across the curve. This shows the complex interplay between different sectors and asset classes in the market.Impact on Big Banks and Megacaps
Big banks saw gains, with Wells Fargo up 1.1% and Morgan Stanley adding 1.2% in premarket trading. Popular 'Trump trade' Tesla also rose 2.2%, indicating the broader market sentiment. Among megacaps, Alphabet and Amazon.com rose 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. This shows that the market rally is not limited to specific sectors but is affecting a wide range of companies.The benchmark S&P 500 crossed 6,000 points for the first time just days after the election verdict and has jumped more than 4% since Nov. 4. The Russell 2000 index has surged more than 8% during the same period and both indexes are near their respective record highs. This shows the strength and resilience of the U.S. stock market.Brokerage Barclays raised its full-year 2025 forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,600 points from 6,500, further highlighting the positive outlook for the market.Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy
Yields on Treasury bonds had surged after Trump's victory on expectations that his policies could stoke inflationary pressures and slow down the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing. However, Bessent is seen as being less aggressive on tariffs than some of the rhetoric espoused by Trump. A fall in bond yields in response to his unveiling suggests that some concerns about a new wave of inflationary pressures from import tariffs have eased.Expectations for what the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy move is likely to be in December have recently swayed between a pause and a cut. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows a near 56% probability that the central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points. This shows the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy decisions and the impact it could have on the stock market.The Personal Consumption Expenditure report, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, will be on investors' radar this Thanksgiving week, along with the latest estimate on gross domestic product and minutes from the Fed's policy meeting earlier this month. This indicates the importance of these economic indicators in shaping market sentiment.Crypto Stocks and Other Market Movements
Crypto stocks such as MicroStrategy advanced 5.4%, MARA Holdings rose 4.8% and Coinbase added 1.4%, with bitcoin prices just shy of the $100,000 mark. This shows the growing influence of cryptocurrencies in the financial market.Peabody Energy dropped 7% after Anglo American decided to sell its remaining Australian steelmaking coal mines to the company for up to $3.78 billion in cash. This shows the volatility in the energy sector and the impact of corporate decisions on individual stocks.Retail trading platform Robinhood Markets advanced 3.9% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its stock to “overweight” from “equal-weight”. This highlights the importance of analyst recommendations and their impact on stock prices.