Racing Risk Models: Reducing Risk in British Horseracing
Dec 4, 2024 at 5:55 PM
The British racing industry, in a significant partnership with the Royal Veterinary College (RVC), has been leveraging data over a span of 14 years. This data-driven initiative aims to identify and mitigate risks within the sport through the Racing Risk Models (RRM). The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and Horse Welfare Board (HWB) made this announcement on Wednesday.
Key Partners and Initiatives
Work on the RRM commenced in 2018 and has been a core recommendation of the HWB's 2020 strategy, "A Life Well Lived." Academic researchers from the RVC have been meticulously analyzing data collected for each race start in Britain. This data encompasses details such as horse information, racing history, trainer details, jockey data, and racecourse information. It is combined with details of any adverse outcomes that occurred during the race.There are five potential risk factor categories identified by the model - horse, race, course, trainer, and jockey. The RVC's experts apply multivariable statistical modeling to this data to pinpoint areas of heightened risk and the strength of association. This enables the creation of predictive models that have the potential to identify how injury and fatality rates might be influenced by individual factors.In 2023, the model was expanded to include Flat racing data, in addition to the 400,000 jump records already analyzed as part of the project.As new data continues to emerge and future race starts are analyzed, the Royal Veterinary College and the Equine Safety Group (ESG) will persist in exploring risk factors, their associations, and potential recommendations for the future. Led by the BHA, the ESG comprises experts from various sectors of British racing, including owners, trainers, jockeys, racecourses, veterinary and safety advisors, and internal data analysts.Expert Insights and Welfare Strategy
James Given, the director of equine regulation, safety, and welfare at the BHA and a member of the Horse Welfare Board, emphasized, "The Royal Veterinary College's Epidemiological Team possesses academic expertise and independence. This allows them to provide scientifically rigorous evidence, enabling recommendations and actions to be firmly based on indisputable data."He further stated, "The reduction of risk and injury is one of the core pillars of our welfare strategy. Informed, evidence-based decision-making is integral to achieving this goal."Data's Impact on the Racing Landscape
The extensive use of data in the British racing industry has brought about significant changes. It has enabled a more comprehensive understanding of the various factors that contribute to risks during races. By identifying these risks, the industry can take proactive measures to enhance the safety and well-being of the horses.For example, trainers can now have a better understanding of the factors that might increase the likelihood of an injury to their horses. This knowledge allows them to make more informed decisions regarding training and race selection. Jockeys can also benefit from this data as it provides them with insights into the conditions and potential risks associated with different races.Racecourses can use this data to make improvements to their facilities and ensure that they are providing a safe environment for the horses. The veterinary community can also utilize the data to develop more effective treatment plans and preventive measures.Ongoing Research and Future Directions
The continuous analysis of new data and future race starts will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the British racing industry. The ESG will continue to explore risk factors, their associations, and potential recommendations. This ongoing research will help the industry stay at the forefront of safety and welfare practices.As the data continues to evolve, the industry will be able to refine its risk models and develop more targeted strategies for reducing risks. This will not only benefit the horses but also enhance the reputation and sustainability of British racing.In conclusion, the partnership between the British racing industry and the Royal Veterinary College has paved the way for a more data-driven and safer racing environment. Through the RRM and ongoing research, the industry is making significant strides in reducing risks and improving the welfare of the horses.