Potential Bounce-Back Candidates in Fantasy Baseball

Apr 24, 2025 at 1:27 PM

In the unpredictable world of fantasy baseball, even top-tier players experience slumps. Over a six-month season, these rough patches can lead to some undervalued gems on the waiver wire or trade block. This article explores hitters who may be poised for a resurgence based on advanced metrics from Statcast. By analyzing discrepancies between expected and actual performance, we identify players whose fortunes could turn around soon.

Among the most intriguing cases is Salvador Perez, whose underlying numbers suggest he's hitting like one of the league's elite batters despite poor on-field results. His low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) seems unsustainable given his high barrel rate and power potential. Similarly, Andrew Vaughn appears to be a victim of bad luck, with his expected stats aligning closely with career norms. Other notable mentions include Brandon Nimmo, whose swing adjustments and harder-hit balls hint at better days ahead, and Adley Rutschman, whose improved plate discipline and contact quality signal a promising future.

For catchers, Ryan Jeffers and Luis Torrens present opportunities but come with caveats. While Jeffers' power should return, his overall profile suggests limited upside. Meanwhile, Torrens has shown encouraging signs with a revamped swing, though his role might diminish once Francisco Alvarez returns.

Not all players are as straightforward. Max Muncy and Brandon Lowe both face concerns about declining skills and increased injury risks, though their current struggles seem exaggerated compared to their true talent levels. Even Mike Trout, an icon of consistency, finds himself mired in an unlucky start, underscoring that even greatness isn't immune to statistical variance.

Finally, emerging talents like Dylan Crews offer tantalizing glimpses of breakout potential. Despite initial hurdles, Crews' recent hot streak showcases his growing comfort against major-league pitching, making him a worthwhile speculative add.

As the season progresses, keeping an eye on these metrics can help separate temporary slumps from genuine declines. Whether it's betting on established stars regaining form or discovering hidden gems, leveraging Statcast data provides a strategic edge in navigating the fantasy landscape.