Tory Leadership Race: A Divided Party Faces an Uncertain Future

The Conservative Party's leadership race has been met with a sense of foreboding among senior Tories, who fear that the eventual winner may not be able to unite the party or lead it to victory in the next general election. With a "B-list" of candidates and concerns about the party's direction, the upcoming conference in Birmingham is poised to be a pivotal moment in the party's future.

Doubts Loom Over the Tories' Path to Recovery

A Party in Disarray

Some veteran Tory figures have decided to skip the party conference in Birmingham, fearing that the event will only serve to confirm their misgivings about the state of the party. The presence of former Prime Minister Liz Truss and Boris Johnson's memoirs, which include claims of an aborted plan to invade the Netherlands to seize COVID-19 vaccines, have only added to the sense of unease.The four candidates vying for the party's leadership – Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Tom Tugendhat, and James Cleverly – have been described by one recently departed Tory minister as a "B-list selection," with none of them possessing the obvious qualities to unite the party's factions and make a swift return to power. The depression that has descended on some senior Tories is palpable, with one former cabinet minister expressing doubts about how long the next leader will even remain in the role.

Concerns About the Candidates

The candidates themselves have faced criticism, with some insiders accusing the Conservative headquarters of favoring Badenoch. Tugendhat is seen as too left-leaning for the party's right-wing, while Badenoch is considered too right-wing for the left. Jenrick is viewed as unexciting and attempting to be something he is not, while Cleverly is seen as too close to Rishi Sunak's regime to represent a fresh start.The concerns about the candidates are reflected in the latest Opinium polling for the Observer, which shows that voters no longer know what the Conservative Party stands for and believe it is disunited and lacking a clear sense of purpose. The party has dropped significantly in terms of perceived unity, clarity of purpose, and connection with voters over the last three years.

Doubts About the Next Leader's Longevity

The doubts about the party's future direction are further compounded by the belief that the next Conservative leader may not even survive until the next general election. One senior Tory source suggested that several figures in the party are already discussing the potential return of Boris Johnson in a couple of years, should the next leader struggle to make an impression on the Labour government.The concerns about the party's direction and the viability of the next leader have led some to question whether the Conservative Party has truly come to terms with its 2019 election loss. Justine Greening, a former Tory cabinet minister, has criticized the leadership candidates for attempting to "style it out" rather than acknowledging the severity of the party's defeat.

The Challenges Ahead

As the Conservative Party prepares for its conference in Birmingham, the challenges it faces are clear. The party must not only select a new leader who can unite its factions and lead it to victory, but it must also address the deeper issues that have eroded its standing with the electorate. The path to recovery will not be an easy one, and the party's future remains uncertain.