Navigating the Climate Finance Maze at Cop29

What Lies Ahead at Cop29

At the Cop29 summit in Azerbaijan, the headline goal is a deal on climate finance – specifically the “new collective quantified goal” mandated by the 2015 Paris agreement. Currently, the $100bn a year goal for poor countries is deemed inadequate, while the ask for about $1.3tn a year by 2030 is still up for negotiation in terms of the headline figure, payment methods, and recipient countries. There has been no concrete counterproposal from developed nations yet, and even when a number emerges, there will be scrutiny over its sources.

Another major issue is the debate over “mitigation” – commitments to curbing greenhouse gas emissions. In Baku last week, Saudi Arabia and its allies tried to undermine the “transition away from fossil fuels” pledge made at Cop28. The key question is whether this pledge will be reiterated in this year’s agreement, with many countries expressing a desire for it while the Saudi-led group resists.

The Negotiation Process So Far

Even with a good faith approach from all countries, negotiating climate finance is extremely difficult. “There has never been a finance target like this negotiated before,” as Patrick noted. While $1.3tn may seem like a large amount compared to the climate crisis cost, it is equivalent to the combined military budgets of the US and China. The process is not easy, but when viewed up close, it doesn't seem as hopeless as it might from a distance.

One area of frustration is the leadership of Azerbaijan, which has been accused of using the summit to boost its fossil fuel industry. Ilham Aliyev's statements about oil and gas have raised concerns. Additionally, many delegates suspect that Azerbaijan, being committed to fossil fuel production, may not be a fair broker for the difficult days ahead. The shadow of a potential second Donald Trump presidency also adds pressure to the process.

Today's Negotiation Process

In 2022, Fiona Harvey provided a detailed rundown of the negotiation process. The first week is for official negotiations, followed by ministerial appearances in the second week, and the final plenary session where consensus must be reached. This process is known for running over, and Patrick expects it to continue beyond his Sunday 7am flight. Delegations will hold private consultations with the presidency to suggest changes in the text.

Some argue that this mechanism enforces the “will of the laggards”, while others believe it forces saboteurs to show their hand. Regardless, reaching a consensus is no easy task.

The Importance of This Year's Cop

The final agreement at Cop29 will be crucial. A deal increasing climate finance from developed to developing countries would be a major milestone and a victory for climate realists. Backsliding from Cop28 commitments would be a setback, and underwhelming finance commitments would further damage developing countries' faith in the process. However, every fraction of a degree of additional warming will have profound consequences, so efforts to limit warming should continue.

Even if a deal is reached today or over the weekend, it is not a concrete result. The process doesn't require countries to fail for warming to exceed 2C. Ultimately, it's about leading to action.

Other Readings

After John Prescott's death, Stephen Bates' obituary captured his role in New Labour. Emine Saner explored the emotional distress of everyday phobias. Aditya Chakrabortty wrote about “left-behind England” and an Amazon worker's story. Josh Toussaint-Strauss delved into the pronatalist movement in the US. Lisa O'Carroll examined tensions in an Irish town over an asylum seeker camp.

Sport Highlights

In football, Lina Hurtig's late goal secured Arsenal's Champions League spot, and Khadija Shaw's two goals helped Manchester City qualify for the quarter-finals. Pep Guardiola signed a new two-year contract with Manchester City. In Formula One, drivers are losing confidence in the FIA and its president after no response to their criticism.

The Front Pages

The Guardian leads with “ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu over Gaza”, the Telegraph with “Starmer supports arrest of Netanyahu”, the Financial Times with “Hague court issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu over ‘war crimes’ in Gaza”, and the Times with “Israeli leader faces arrest if he flies into Britain”. The i focuses on the Ukraine war, the Mirror on the Kremlin warning, the Metro on a suspected methanol poisoning death in Laos, the Mail on “Ed Miliband To Slap Green ‘Tax’ On Your Boiler”, and the Express with “Labour Hands Over Cash To Foreign Farmers” and “Dodgy Haircut Is Hate Crime”.

The Upside

Kelly Dyer's story shows how she changed women's hockey gear. As a child, she had to wear her brother's gear. By calling hockey manufacturers, she prompted a change, as the Chicago Tribune noted in 1996. This is a reminder that even in small ways, positive change can occur.

And for those bored at work, the Guardian's puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day.