MYworldfix

Top aides and those close to Kamala Harris are divided on whether she should run for California governor in 2026 or aim for the Democratic nomination for president in 2028. The governor's race seems like a sure bet with her past electoral success, but a presidential run comes with its own set of challenges and risks. Harris is currently undecided and keeping a low profile while dealing with various considerations.

Kamala Harris' Career Crossroads - Governor vs. President

Should Harris Run for Governor?

Top aides believe getting into the governor's race requires making intentions clear by summer 2025. Running for governor would be seen as a "capstone" rather than a "stepping stone" if she still dreams of the presidency in 2028. One person who advised her in the past emphasized this, stating that a governor's run could interfere with her presidential aspirations. Another close to her argued that the gamble of skipping the governor's race is worth the potential payoff of another presidential shot.

Historical Parallels and the Future

Richard Nixon is the only one to win the White House on a second try as the party nominee after a gubernatorial run. Trump is the only other president to return to office after a loss. For Harris to run again, she would need to hope for Trump buyer's remorse and convince party leaders who were skeptical after Biden dropped out. Being governor has its own power, but it's a decadelong step back. The Gavin Newsom factor also plays a role, as they have long competed in California politics.

No Expected Deference in 2028

After Biden dropped out, other potential candidates hesitated to challenge Harris. But if she runs again in 2028, they won't have the same deference. Harris' advisers worry about eager competition and her performance among younger and Black voters. However, they also note her strong support and connections built around the country.

A Possible 'Field Clearing Effect' in California

In a gubernatorial campaign, Harris would get more deference, but some see signs of weakness. Those close to her say she needs to articulate a clear rationale. Outgoing Rep. Katie Porter predicts a "near field-clearing effect" if Harris enters. California political insiders are speculating about ripple effects, and various candidates are considering their moves. Rick Caruso could also enter the race. But some California Democrats are ready for a homecoming with Harris.