Investors Seek Refuge in Bonds and Crypto Ahead of Election Uncertainty

Nov 1, 2024 at 4:00 PM
As the highly anticipated U.S. presidential election approaches, investors have been making some intriguing moves in the financial markets. A recent analysis by Bank of America has revealed a notable shift in investor behavior, with a surge in demand for both bonds and bitcoin in the past week.

Investors Seek Refuge in Bonds and Crypto Ahead of Election Uncertainty

Bonds Attract Significant Inflows

According to Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger, fund investors have been heavily buying into bonds over the past week. This includes more than $6 billion flowing into so-called "high-grade" bonds, the highest level in eight weeks. Additionally, high-yield credit has also seen significant inflows. Seliger attributed this trend to "ETFs," suggesting that the bond buying has been broad-based across various bond categories.Interestingly, the bond buying is not a full "risk-off" move, as some of the largest short-term Treasury ETFs, which are considered the most stable bond funds, have actually seen outflows. This suggests that investors are willing to take on some extra risk outside of the stock market.

Bitcoin Emerges as a Hedge

Another notable trend is the surge in demand for cryptocurrency, particularly bitcoin. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has attracted more than $2 billion in inflows over the past week, with a record single-day inflow of over $870 million. This reflects a growing interest in bitcoin as a potential hedge against market uncertainty.The overall trend in cryptocurrency ETFs is equally impressive, with more than $23 billion in inflows since their launch in January, according to JPMorgan. This suggests that investors are increasingly viewing digital assets as a viable investment option, especially in the face of potential market volatility surrounding the election.

Equity Funds See Slight Outflows

Interestingly, while bonds and bitcoin have been attracting significant inflows, equity funds have actually experienced slight net outflows during the same timeframe. This suggests that investors are diversifying their portfolios and seeking alternative assets to mitigate risk.The broad-based demand for bonds across various categories, coupled with the surge in bitcoin inflows, highlights the uncertainty and caution that investors are exhibiting ahead of the upcoming election. As the political landscape continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how these investment trends unfold and how they may impact the overall financial markets.