When the Big 12 unveiled a series of tiebreaker situations on Sunday for its league championship game berths, an interesting aspect caught my attention. It wasn't just the scenarios themselves but the reactions they elicited from some Iowa State fans. The focus was on the most heartbreaking way Iowa State could miss the title game, with a real preoccupation about winning yet being shut out of playing at AT&T Stadium. This fan base has a long history of fatalism, and it's understandable. But what are the actual chances of this nightmare scenario happening? With the help of ESPN's FPI game predictor analytics and Dan Nettleton from Iowa State's Department of Statistics, we set out to find the answer.

The Odds and Possibilities

Iowa State's Victory and Other Results

Iowa State needs to beat Kansas State. At the same time, Colorado must beat Oklahoma State, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona, and Houston must beat BYU. Additionally, either Kansas has to beat Baylor or TCU has to beat Cincinnati. The likelihood of this exact weekend unfolding is a mere 1.7 percent. To put it in perspective, the odds of picking a specific card from a deck are 1.9 percent. "It's easier to pick the right card than for this scenario to unfold," said Nettleton, an avid sports fan who has co-authored papers on NCAA Tournament and NFL win probabilities. "They should be in if they win."If we assume an Iowa State win (they have a slightly better than a coin-flip chance against Kansas State according to ESPN), there is a 3.2 percent chance that they could get left out. This is about the odds of rolling snake eyes with a pair of dice.

Hedging Your Bets

If you want to monetize your fatalism or bet on the football gods' supposed abhorrence of Iowa State, you can place a six-or-seven leg parlay. The payouts vary depending on which exact scenario you imagine as the most painful - Kansas winning, TCU winning, or both winning. The payouts are plus-4,006 ($5 bet wins $200), plus-3,347 ($5 wins $167), or plus-6,480 ($5 to win $324), respectively.

Another Perspective

Coach Matt Campbell said when he arrived, the expectation was "Woe is me." But since 2017, there is a new standard - to be the best. They have proven themselves in great moments and big games. "Being able to do it with our fan base and the energy they bring, to give them something to be proud of and confident in," Campbell said. "I hope we're at that point."Is this enough to make the most weary Cyclone fan laugh in the face of a 1-in-52 chance of a soul-crushing kick without the protection of an emotional athletic cup? "I'm more worried about the scenario where they just don't win," Professor Nettleton said. And that, we'll count as progress.Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has been covering the Cyclones since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000. Follow him on X at @TravisHines21.