The house-price supercycle is just getting going

Oct 1, 2024 at 5:37 PM

The Resilient Real Estate: Defying Economic Turmoil

The global housing market has proven to be a resilient force, weathering economic storms and emerging stronger than ever. Despite the financial crisis of 2007-09 and the COVID-19 pandemic, house prices have continued to rise, defying predictions of a crash. As central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation, the housing market has once again demonstrated its remarkable ability to adapt and thrive, leaving experts puzzled and intrigued by its unwavering resilience.

Unlocking the Secrets of the Indomitable Housing Market

Weathering the Financial Crisis: A Remarkable Rebound

After the financial crisis of 2007-09, the global housing market experienced a temporary setback, with real house prices falling by 6%. However, this downturn was short-lived, as the market quickly regained its footing and surpassed its pre-crisis peak. This resilience was a testament to the underlying strength and adaptability of the housing sector, which has continued to defy economic turbulence and emerge stronger than ever.The housing market's ability to bounce back from the financial crisis was a remarkable feat, defying the expectations of many economists who had predicted a more prolonged and severe downturn. This resilience can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the fundamental human need for shelter, the limited supply of housing in many desirable areas, and the continued appeal of real estate as a long-term investment.

Weathering the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Surprising Boom

When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, economists once again predicted a housing market crash. However, the reality was quite different. Instead of a crash, the housing market experienced a surprising boom, with mask-wearing house-hunters fiercely competing for desirable properties. This unexpected turn of events left experts puzzled, as the pandemic's economic disruptions and social distancing measures were expected to dampen housing demand.The COVID-19 boom in the housing market can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the shift towards remote work, the desire for more spacious living arrangements, and the continued low-interest-rate environment. As people sought to escape urban centers and find larger homes to accommodate their new lifestyles, the demand for housing surged, driving prices higher and fueling a frenzy of activity in the market.

Navigating the Interest Rate Hikes: A Resilient Rebound

As central banks around the world raised interest rates to combat inflation, fears mounted of a potential "house-price horror show." However, the housing market once again proved its resilience, with real prices falling by just 5.6% before rebounding rapidly.This resilience can be attributed to the underlying strength and adaptability of the housing market. Despite the higher borrowing costs, the demand for housing remained strong, driven by factors such as population growth, limited supply, and the continued appeal of real estate as an investment. Additionally, the housing market has demonstrated its ability to adjust to changing economic conditions, with buyers and sellers finding ways to navigate the new interest rate environment.

The Enduring Allure of Real Estate: A Defiance of Gravity

The housing market's remarkable ability to keep appreciating, regardless of the economic climate, has left experts and observers alike in awe. Housing seems to defy gravity, continuing to rise in value even in the face of significant economic challenges.This enduring allure of real estate can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the fundamental human need for shelter, the limited supply of housing in many desirable areas, and the perception of real estate as a safe and reliable long-term investment. Additionally, the housing market has demonstrated its ability to adapt to changing economic conditions, with buyers and sellers finding ways to navigate the ups and downs of the market.As the housing market continues to confound expectations and defy economic gravity, it is clear that this sector has a remarkable resilience and adaptability that sets it apart from other areas of the economy. Whether facing financial crises, pandemics, or interest rate hikes, the housing market has proven time and again that it is a force to be reckoned with, and that its appreciation is likely to continue in the years to come.