A recent decision by the Trump administration to escalate tariffs on imported steel may soon affect the affordability of canned goods. The move, which doubles the tax rate on foreign steel to 50%, is anticipated to inflate the cost of tin-coated steel—a vital component in food can production. According to the Consumer Brands Association, this could lead to a price increase of between 9% and 15% for canned items. Industry experts suggest that an item currently priced at $2 might see an increase of up to 30 cents. This situation arises due to insufficient domestic supply of tin-plate, the ultra-thin material used in food cans, leaving manufacturers reliant on imports primarily from Europe and Canada.

The imposition of higher tariffs aims to bolster demand for domestically produced steel, yet manufacturers argue that U.S. sources fall short of meeting the necessary requirements for food-grade tin-plate. Robert Gatz, general manager of Can Corp. of America, highlights the lack of adequate production capacity within the United States. With approximately 75% of tin-plate utilized in the U.S. being imported, concerns grow over how these tariffs will impact the industry. In 2023 alone, nearly 1.5 million tons of tin-plate were imported, marking a significant rise from previous years.

Companies such as Pittsburgh-based US Steel have reduced their tin-plate operations, while Cleveland-Cliffs closed its plant in Weirton, West Virginia, in 2023. CEO Lourenco Goncalves attributes the closure to the absence of tariffs at the time, asserting it is now too late to reverse the trend. Producers estimate that earlier tariffs increased costs by 7% to 8%, with the doubled tariff potentially pushing this figure beyond 14%. These heightened expenses are expected to be passed down to consumers, complicating the market for canned foods.

Thomas Hunter, co-president of McCall Farms, voices concerns about consumer willingness to purchase more expensive canned vegetables. Rising packaging costs alongside existing labor and raw produce expenses pose challenges for producers. Manufacturers may explore cheaper packaging alternatives if prices continue to climb. Rick Huether, CEO of Independent Can Co., warns that customers are nearing a tipping point where they might opt for plastic packaging instead. The Consumer Brands Association cautions that up to 20,000 jobs in food-can manufacturing could be jeopardized if consumers shift away from canned products due to rising costs.

Despite these concerns, the Trump administration views tariffs as essential tools to encourage reshoring of manufacturing. White House spokesman Kush Desai emphasizes the importance of domestic steel and aluminum production for national defense and economic security. The administration remains committed to revitalizing critical manufacturing sectors through deregulation, tax cuts, and energy initiatives, aiming to provide economic relief for American citizens. While the administration believes both goals can be achieved simultaneously, the potential ripple effects on the canned goods industry remain a significant concern for stakeholders across the board.