The Elusive Impact of Analytics in Football

The rise of analytics in football has been a much-discussed topic, with numerous books and articles exploring its influence on the game. However, the true impact of data-driven decision-making remains a subject of debate, as the narrative around its transformative power often seems to outpace the tangible changes observed on the pitch.

Uncovering the Realities Behind the Analytics Hype

The Moneyball Effect and Its Ripple Across Sports

The analytics movement in football has been largely inspired by a similar trend in baseball, where the publication of Michael Lewis's "Moneyball" in 2003 helped popularize the use of data-driven insights to gain a competitive edge. The book's success and the subsequent film adaptation starring Brad Pitt have made the "Moneyball" concept a household name, even in the world of football.However, the transition from baseball to football has not been as straightforward as one might expect. While baseball is a sport heavily reliant on numerical data, football's inherent complexity and the presence of numerous intangible factors have made the application of analytics more challenging. The books that have attempted to be football's "Moneyball" have often found themselves grappling with the blurred lines between the roles of the "narrator" and the "protagonist," as the same figures have played both parts.

The Debate Between "Spreadsheet Nerds" and "Old-School Football Men"

The analytics debate in football has inevitably been framed as a clash between the "Spreadsheet Nerds" and the "Old-School Football Men." As a self-proclaimed member of the "Spreadsheet Nerds" camp, the author has been a keen observer of the gradual embrace of data by the football media and has actively engaged with the topic through regular attendance at the Opta Pro Forum, an annual conference on the subject.However, after reading and largely enjoying numerous books on football analytics, the author has struggled to draw a clear line between the claims of a "data revolution" and the actual impact on the game. The books themselves seem to cast doubt on the notion that analytics has fundamentally changed the way football is played, with some experts even questioning the relevance and reliability of the available data.

The Elusive Transformation of Football Tactics

One of the primary narratives around the impact of analytics has been the shift towards fewer long-range shots and a greater emphasis on working the ball into close-range positions before attempting a goal. While the data does demonstrate this trend, it is important to note that this process has been gradually occurring over the years, even before the rise of analytics.The author's own research, as well as the insights from experts like John Muller, suggest that the decrease in long-range shots has been a long-term trend, rather than a direct result of the data revolution. Furthermore, the author's initial plans to include a chapter on the impact of analytics in the updated version of his book "The Mixer" were ultimately abandoned, as he felt that the influence of analytics was less noteworthy than even relatively minor rule changes, such as the ability to receive goal kicks inside the penalty area.

The Elusive Influence of Data on Team Strategies and Match Outcomes

Despite the wealth of literature on football analytics, the author struggles to find concrete examples of how team strategies have been altered or how individual matches have been won or lost due to data-driven insights. The insiders' reluctance to reveal trade secrets is understandable, but it leaves a void in the available information.One area that does show promise is the concept of "pitch control," which calculates the parts of the pitch a team's players can reach before their opponents, effectively mapping the zones of control. However, even in this case, the author laments the lack of detailed case studies demonstrating how these models have been put into practice and influenced decision-making on the pitch.

The Rise of Pep Guardiola and the Limits of Data's Impact

The author acknowledges that the rise of Pep Guardiola and his possession-based style of play has been a more significant factor in the recent stylistic changes in football than the data revolution. While Guardiola is frequently mentioned in the analytics literature, there is little evidence of him placing great emphasis on data-driven insights.Furthermore, the author cites the observations of Ryan O'Hanlon, who notes that while most Premier League teams now have at least one person with the title "analytics" in their organization, the majority of these individuals have very little impact on the team's decision-making. The author suggests that teams often hire these analysts simply to appear progressive, rather than to truly integrate data-driven insights into their operations.

The Contrast with the Analytics Revolution in Cricket

In contrast to the football landscape, the author highlights the more revelatory nature of the analytics movement in cricket, as exemplified by the book "Hitting Against The Spin" by Nathan Leamon and Ben Jones. This work challenges long-held assumptions and prescribes playing in an unorthodox fashion, leading to genuine changes in how cricketers approach the game.The author attributes this difference to the relative simplicity and ease of quantification in cricket compared to the inherent complexity of football. While the main conclusion in football analytics seems to be that more shots go in from 10 yards than from 20 yards, the cricket analytics movement has produced insights that directly influence how the game is played.

Reframing the Impact of Analytics in Football

The author suggests that the impact of analytics in football is more akin to the role of Google reviews in the restaurant industry. Just as people now routinely check online reviews before deciding on a restaurant, football clubs use available data to inform their decision-making, particularly in player recruitment and transfer negotiations.However, the author argues that it is not clear that the actual gameplay has been significantly altered by the presence of analytics. While the industry has undoubtedly changed, with the rise of data analysts and the increased use of data-driven insights, the author questions whether the game itself has been fundamentally transformed.Ultimately, the author concludes that the true impact of analytics in football remains elusive, with the narrative around its transformative power often outpacing the tangible changes observed on the pitch. The industry has certainly embraced data-driven decision-making, but the author suggests that the game itself may not have been altered as dramatically as the hype would suggest.