The Gulf states have emerged as key players in the global energy landscape, wielding significant influence over the world's oil and gas supplies. However, their approach to addressing the climate crisis has been met with skepticism, as they continue to expand hydrocarbon production while simultaneously investing in renewable energy and climate finance initiatives. This article delves into the complex dynamics at play, exploring the Gulf states' strategic positioning and the implications for the global fight against climate change.

Navigating the Contradictions: The Gulf States' Dual Approach to Energy and Climate

The Gulf States' Fossil Fuel Dominance

The Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, have long been dominant players in the global oil and gas industry. In 2023, they supplied around 30 percent of the world's crude oil imports, with Saudi Aramco being the world's largest oil firm. Beyond oil, these countries are also ramping up natural gas production, with Qatar emerging as a major exporter of liquefied natural gas.

Aligning with Western Giants: The Gulf NOCs' Climate Pledges

Despite their reliance on fossil fuels, the Gulf states' National Oil Companies (NOCs) have aligned themselves with the climate commitments of their Western counterparts. They have pledged to reduce emissions through investments in renewables and carbon capture technologies, while simultaneously expanding oil and gas production. This dual approach has raised concerns about the sincerity of their climate commitments.

Shaping Global Climate Policy: The Gulf States' Influence at UN Climate Talks

The Gulf states' influence on global climate policy is particularly evident at the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COPs). At COP28, for instance, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) presided over the proceedings, allowing Gulf NOCs to "greenwash" their accelerating hydrocarbon extraction by pledging to invest more in renewables. This trend is expected to continue at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the event's leadership is closely tied to the country's fossil fuel industry.

Fossil Fuel Dependence in the Global South: The Case of Azerbaijan

The upcoming COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, further highlights the Gulf states' influence in shaping climate policy. Like the UAE, Azerbaijan is heavily dependent on oil and gas, with these resources accounting for up to 90 percent of its exports and half of its GDP. The event's leadership, including the deputy energy minister and a former executive of Azerbaijan's NOC, underscores the fossil fuel industry's involvement in the proceedings.

Climate Finance: The Gulf States' Profit-Driven Approach

The Gulf states see the fight against climate change as a profit-making opportunity, as evidenced by their enthusiastic investment in climate finance. They are using their vast sovereign wealth funds, derived from oil and gas exports, to shape the flow of climate finance, both in terms of who provides it and who receives it. This is exemplified by the UAE's establishment of the Altérra fund, a private sector climate investment vehicle that is largely controlled by the ruling family and operates in a tax-free financial free zone.

Carbon Offsetting: The Gulf States' Emerging Role

The Gulf states are also emerging as leading advocates of carbon offsetting, a controversial mechanism that allows polluters to continue emitting greenhouse gases by purchasing credits from projects that claim to reduce or sequester emissions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been actively involved in establishing and participating in carbon credit markets, with Saudi Aramco relying on offsets to meet a significant portion of its emissions reduction targets.

Shaping the Future of Carbon Markets: The Gulf States' Influence at COP29

The upcoming COP29 in Baku is expected to be a crucial event for the future of carbon markets, as member nations are set to agree on international trading standards for carbon credits. With Saudi Arabia currently chairing the Article 6.4 Supervisory Board, which is responsible for developing governance mechanisms for the carbon market, the Gulf states' influence on these negotiations is likely to be significant.

Conclusion: The Gulf States' Contradictory Role in the Climate Crisis

The Gulf states' approach to the climate crisis is marked by a fundamental contradiction. While they pledge to reduce emissions and invest in renewable energy, their continued expansion of oil and gas production, as well as their involvement in carbon offsetting and climate finance, suggest a profit-driven agenda that may undermine genuine climate action. As the world grapples with the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels, the Gulf states' influence on global climate policy remains a critical issue that requires close scrutiny and accountability.