Two young relief pitchers, Porter Hodge and Ben Joyce, are making waves in the fantasy baseball community. Drafted within the top 200 picks at the NFBC this December, both players are expected to close games in the upcoming season. However, their potential for success is uncertain, as they are unproven commodities in the major leagues. This article delves into the prospects of these two rookies, examining their strengths and challenges.

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Hodge's Rise to Prominence

Porter Hodge, a right-handed pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, made his debut in May 2024. By the end of July, he had already established himself with an impressive 2.05 ERA and a robust 19 K-BB%. The Cubs' decision to trade Mark Leiter Jr. and designate Nector Neris for assignment paved the way for Hodge to step up as the team’s closer.Hodge secured his first save on August 20th and went on to claim eight of the Cubs' ten saves from that point forward. His performance earned him the fourth-best ERA among rookie relievers and sixth-best WHIP, despite a higher-than-average walk rate. Hodge's success can be attributed to his exceptional .132 batting average against and a .189 BABIP, ranking him among the top three bullpen arms with at least 40 innings pitched.The key to Hodge’s dominance lies in his elite 32% strikeout rate. He relied heavily on his fastball, which averaged 95.5 mph, complemented by a sweeping slider. According to Statcast, Hodge’s sweeper led the league in run value, boasting a 52% whiff rate—fourth best in MLB. Hodge also plans to develop a splitter for the 2025 season, adding another dimension to his pitching arsenal. Despite his promising start, the Cubs’ pursuit of free-agent relievers could impact Hodge’s role. Tyson Miller and Nate Pearson pose significant competition, but Hodge remains a valuable upside bet until the Cubs make substantial investments in the bullpen.

Joyce's Journey to Success

Ben Joyce, a right-handed reliever for the Los Angeles Angels, began the 2024 season in Triple-A before being called up in June. With Carlos Estévez traded mid-season, Joyce took over save opportunities, securing 80% of the team’s saves before a shoulder injury sidelined him for the remainder of the year. In total, LA recorded only seven saves in August and September.Joyce's 34.2 innings resulted in 33 strikeouts, a remarkable 2.08 ERA, and a solid 1.15 WHIP. While his ERA estimators suggest some over-performance, his 0.28 HR/9 and 58% groundball rate highlight his effectiveness in preventing runs. These metrics place him among the top relievers in these categories.Joyce’s four-seamer averaged an astounding 102.1 mph, the highest in the league, though its run value was less favorable compared to his sinker. Reducing fastball usage in favor of sliders and changeups could enhance his strikeout rate. If Joyce can maintain this approach and reach 50-60 innings, his fantasy profile holds immense potential. However, the number of save opportunities depends on the Angels' win count and any new signings. Robert Stephenson is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, leaving Joyce without immediate competition. Should this remain unchanged heading into Opening Day, Joyce’s ceiling becomes more enticing.

Market Expectations and Risks

Drafting Hodge and Joyce within the top 200 picks reflects high market expectations. Both pitchers have demonstrated promise but come with inherent risks. For Hodge, maintaining his low batting average against and BABIP will be crucial. Joyce must continue limiting homers and generating groundballs while improving his strikeout rate. Ultimately, the success of these young arms hinges on their ability to adapt and overcome challenges in the competitive world of relief pitching.