Unlocking the Fantasy Basketball Goldmine: Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts to Dominate Your League

Assembling a championship-caliber fantasy basketball roster is a delicate balance of strategy, foresight, and a keen eye for talent. As the 2024-25 NBA season approaches, our expert panel delves into the hidden gems, rising stars, and potential landmines that could make or break your fantasy fortunes.

Uncover the Hidden Gems: Sleepers to Elevate Your Roster

Scoot Henderson: The Blazing Sophomore Sensation

Scoot Henderson, the dynamic point guard of the Portland Trail Blazers, is poised to take the league by storm in his sophomore campaign. Despite his raw, youthful debut season at just 19 years old, Henderson showcased flashes of brilliance, particularly in the latter stages of the year. Over the final 14 games, he averaged an impressive 18.9 points, 7.9 assists, and 2.3 steals per game, demonstrating his ability to orchestrate an exciting, up-tempo offense. With a year of experience under his belt, Henderson is primed to make significant strides in his decision-making, shot selection, and overall efficiency, making him a prime target for fantasy managers seeking a breakout performer.

Shaedon Sharpe: The Blazers' Budding Superstar

Shaedon Sharpe, the Portland Trail Blazers' highly touted 2022 draft pick, is another player poised to take a giant leap forward. Considered one of the most talented prospects in his class, Sharpe's rookie season was cut short due to an abdominal injury, but not before he showcased his immense potential. In his first 21 starts, Sharpe averaged an eye-catching 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 3-pointers, and 1.0 steal per game, all while playing a significant 37.6 minutes per contest. With the Blazers in rebuilding mode, Sharpe should have ample opportunity to continue his development and emerge as a fantasy force in his sophomore season.

Trey Murphy III: The Pelicans' Efficient Wing Specialist

Trey Murphy III of the New Orleans Pelicans is another sleeper to keep an eye on. Already one of the league's most efficient wing scorers, Murphy has posted a blistering 63.3% true shooting clip since the start of the 2022-23 season. Despite an injury-shortened campaign last year, Murphy enters this season healthy and primed to take his 3-and-D production to new heights. In his 23 starts for the Pelicans, Murphy averaged an impressive 8.3 3-point attempts per game, showcasing his elite floor-spacing abilities. With an ADP well past 100, Murphy represents tremendous value as a midround selection, offering the potential to deliver Klay Thompson-esque production.

Cam Thomas: The Nets' Scoring Dynamo

Cam Thomas of the Brooklyn Nets is another sleeper to consider. Despite being drafted in the late stages of the 2021 NBA Draft, Thomas made a significant impact in his rookie season, helping fantasy managers win leagues in deep formats. While he won't come as cheap as he did a year ago, the Nets' current state of disarray should provide Thomas with ample opportunities to showcase his scoring prowess. At just 23 years old on opening night, Thomas has the tools to improve his overall stat line and emerge as a valuable fantasy asset, even with the presence of Ben Simmons in the Nets' rotation.

Amen Thompson: The Rockets' Versatile Dynamo

Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets is a sleeper with immense upside. After a promising rookie season, Thompson has been making waves this offseason, working out with the Rockets in Los Angeles and being part of the Team USA Select squad, scrimmaging against the team that went on to win the gold medal in Paris. Thompson's impact goes beyond just scoring, as he contributes across multiple statistical categories and is a key player the Rockets want to build around. While he averaged just 22.4 minutes per game last season, he was incredibly productive when given extended playing time, averaging 15.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game in those contests. With the potential for increased playing time and continued development, Thompson could emerge as a fantasy force in his sophomore campaign.

Breakout Candidates: Rising Stars Poised to Dominate

Jalen Johnson: The Hawks' Frontcourt Dynamo

Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks is a prime breakout candidate this season. After a promising rookie campaign, Johnson's ascent was derailed by injuries, including a right ankle sprain and a left wrist injury caused by a questionable foul from Kyle Kuzma. Despite the setbacks, Johnson still managed to average 16.0 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in his third NBA season. With the departure of Dejounte Murray, Johnson is poised to take on a larger role in the Hawks' offense, potentially emerging as a double-double machine and a valuable contributor across multiple statistical categories. At just 22 years old, Johnson has the potential to develop into a league-swaying frontcourt force, making him an intriguing value pick with an ADP of 96th overall.

RJ Barrett: The Raptors' Efficiency Explosion

RJ Barrett of the Toronto Raptors is another player primed for a breakout season. After being traded from the New York Knicks, Barrett thrived in his new environment, particularly in terms of his efficiency. In 32 games with the Raptors, he averaged an impressive 21.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game while shooting a remarkable 55.3% from the field. As the former third overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, Barrett has the talent and opportunity to take his game to new heights. If he can maintain those impressive averages over the course of a full season, Barrett could find himself in the running for the Most Improved Player Award, making him a valuable fantasy target.

Jalen Green: The Rockets' Scoring Juggernaut

Jalen Green of the Houston Rockets is another breakout candidate to keep an eye on. The former second overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has proven to be a gifted scorer, but has struggled with consistency at times. However, under the guidance of new head coach Ime Udoka, Green has shown signs of significant improvement. After a slower start to the season, Green burst out to average an impressive 29.2 points per game from February 29th to March 29th, as the Rockets made a late-season playoff push. This stretch serves as a tantalizing preview of what fantasy managers can expect from Green on a more consistent basis this upcoming season, as he continues to develop and solidify his role as a scoring leader for the Rockets.

Potential Landmines: Busts to Avoid in Your Fantasy Draft

Kawhi Leonard: The Injury-Prone Superstar

Kawhi Leonard of the LA Clippers is a player that fantasy managers should approach with caution. While Leonard did manage to play 68 games last season, a significant improvement from his previous three campaigns, his injury history remains a major concern. Even with the increased playing time, Leonard's scoring, rebounding, and assist numbers declined from his prior seasons. Given his propensity for missing extended periods due to various ailments, fantasy managers would be wise to temper their expectations for Leonard, even if he is available in the fourth or fifth round of their drafts.

Joel Embiid: The Fragile Superstar

Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers is another player that fantasy managers should be wary of drafting. Despite his undeniable talent and dominance when healthy, Embiid has struggled to stay on the court throughout his career. Even more concerning is his recent performance for Team USA in the Olympics, where he appeared lethargic and struggled to maintain his usual level of production. With his injury history and the arrival of Paul George in Philadelphia, fantasy managers would be wise to avoid selecting Embiid, even if he falls in the draft, as his inability to stay healthy could severely hinder a fantasy team's chances of success.

Keldon Johnson: The Spurs' Complementary Piece

Keldon Johnson of the San Antonio Spurs is a player that fantasy managers should approach with caution. After a breakout 2022-23 season, Johnson saw a decrease in minutes, touches, and shot attempts last year, suggesting that his scoring spike may have been more a product of the Spurs' offensive opportunities than a sustainable leap in production. With the Spurs' roster now featuring a mix of young talent and veteran players, including the highly anticipated arrival of Victor Wembanyama, Johnson's role is likely to shift to a more complementary one, limiting his fantasy upside. Without elite defensive rates or strong rebounding numbers for a forward, Johnson's low-ceiling profile may not be worth the investment, especially at his current ADP.

Dejounte Murray: The Pelicans' Backcourt Conundrum

Dejounte Murray, the newly acquired point guard of the New Orleans Pelicans, is another player that fantasy managers should approach with caution. Last season, Murray had a usage rate of 27.7% with the Atlanta Hawks, one of the highest of his career, which was particularly impressive given his playing alongside Trae Young, a high-usage player. However, in New Orleans, Murray will have to share touches with a talented supporting cast that includes Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy III. This increased competition for offensive opportunities could make it challenging for Murray to replicate the level of production that earned him an ADP in the early rounds of fantasy drafts.

Tobias Harris: The Aging Veteran in a Rebuilding Situation

Tobias Harris of the Detroit Pistons is a player that fantasy managers should be wary of drafting. While Harris is a proven scorer, he doesn't quite fit the rebuilding mold of the Pistons, whose starting lineup features four players aged 22 or younger. At 32 years old, Harris is the outlier in this young core, and there is a likelihood that his minutes could be crunched as the Pistons prioritize the development of their promising young talent, including 19-year-old Ron Holland II, whom they drafted 5th overall. In a situation where Harris' role and playing time are uncertain, fantasy managers would be wise to look elsewhere for more reliable and consistent production.