For the past decade (excluding COVID years), I had the privilege of attending the annual Los Angeles Auto Show. During this time, I witnessed a remarkable transformation in the electric vehicle (EV) landscape. In 2015, consumers had only a few low-volume EV models with limited range and features. But now, prospective buyers can choose from a wide range of options, from an electric Mini Cooper to a three-row Rivian SUV with a range exceeding 400 miles on a single charge. The EV market has become a dynamic arena, with both domestic and foreign carmakers vying to bring their best products to the market.

Uncertainty Amidst a Second Trump Administration

This year, I am as eager as ever to see the new EV options that will be unveiled. However, in the background, there is an air of uncertainty surrounding a potential second Trump administration and its implications for EVs in the US. We do know that the election results pose challenges for UCS and our clean transportation efforts. This change in administration could set back our progress in reducing air pollution from transportation and combating climate change, including the transition from gasoline to electric vehicles.The EV market is resilient and will continue to grow. Even if there are setbacks, the demand for EVs is on the rise globally. In 2023, EVs accounted for about 20% of new car sales in the EU and 50% of new passenger vehicles in China. As other countries phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles, automakers that do not offer electric models will face a shrinking global market.

Challenges for US Domestic Automakers

Car companies need to adapt to the changing market and build EVs that sell. While it may seem beneficial for US domestic automakers to slow down on EVs in the short term, it would put them at a significant disadvantage as Asian and European competitors expand their EV offerings and reduce production costs. New tariffs may provide temporary protection for the domestic industry, but they could have disastrous long-term impacts if US automakers are unable to sell vehicles abroad.In the 1980s, Japanese automakers faced similar challenges when they offered quality cars with better fuel economy at lower prices. Import restrictions gave US automakers a chance to catch up, but at the cost of higher prices for consumers. Today, the situation is similar, and US automakers must invest in EV manufacturing to stay competitive.

Impact of Federal EV Investments

The investments in EVs and charging infrastructure during the Biden Administration have been crucial for the growth of the EV industry. Federal investments are spread across many states and will take time to reverse. However, executive action could make it more difficult for automakers to access these funds.For example, Ford has received a significant loan to build battery manufacturing plants. The federal EV tax credits have also been important in helping car buyers make the switch to EVs. Over 300,000 EV purchases have used the credit, saving consumers billions of dollars. However, these credits could be made more restrictive, slowing the adoption of EVs, especially for lower-priced models.

The Role of State Leadership

State leadership is crucial for EV policy. Federal standards on vehicle emissions and California's authority to require lower emission vehicles will be under attack. California's Advanced Clean Car II standards, which require manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of zero-emission vehicles by 2035, are essential for reducing climate pollution.States can take action to increase the availability of EVs, such as providing incentives for new and used EV sales. This is especially important for lower-income drivers and those driving older, more polluting gasoline vehicles.

Automakers' Choices

Automakers have a critical decision to make. They can choose to move forward and build EVs that meet the needs of drivers and the environment, or they can prioritize short-term profits. Toyota, for example, has been against EV targets, despite California already achieving 25% EV sales. Other automakers that have offered compelling EVs have fared better.In a time of climate change, we cannot afford to go backward on vehicle emissions standards. The speed of the EV transition may change, but the direction is clear - towards a more sustainable future.

EV Sales Beyond the US

EVs are not just a US phenomenon. Car companies need to be prepared for a post-Trump marketplace and build EVs that sell globally. As other countries phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles, automakers that do not offer electric models will face a shrinking market.In conclusion, the EV market is evolving rapidly, and despite potential challenges, the future looks bright. Automakers that embrace EV technology and invest in manufacturing will succeed in a changing world.