Uncover the Secrets of Week 13 Fantasy Football with Our Worksheet

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is heading to Green Bay with back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks. He has overtaken the league lead with a 73.3% completion rate, but Miami's passing offense has been constricted. Just 25.4% of his passes have been 10 or more yards downfield, and only 7.8% have been 20 or more yards. Miami's short passing game has been their primary approach this season. However, this week's game in cold weather could change things. The Packers are a pass defense that relies on pressure, which is hard to apply to Tua due to his quick release. Tagovailoa has been pressured on a league-low 20.9% of his dropbacks. When pressured, the Packers allow a league-low 4.3 Y/A, but without pressure, they allow 8.2 Y/A.

Green Bay's Jordan Love has come out of the bye as a run-centric offense. Over the past two weeks, he has been 7% and 15% below pass rate expectations and has only thrown 40 total passes. Love has had some warts this year, with a 61.8% completion rate (32nd out of 35 qualified passers) and a 32nd-ranked rating on third down (72.0). However, his 8.0 yards per attempt is 7th, and he has a 6.4% completion rate (4th). Running the ball has helped Love get into more manageable third downs.

Running Back

De'Von Achane was limited to 56 yards on 13 touches on Sunday but managed to score twice. His efficiency as a runner has dropped from his rookie season, but he still has an 11.4% explosive rate and an increased workload as a receiver. In games with Tua this season, he has averaged 23.3 PPR points per game. Green Bay has been hit or miss against the run, allowing 4.5 YPC (20th) and a 59.6% success rate (25th). Josh Jacobs, on the other hand, has peeled off four straight games of clearing 100 yards from scrimmage. He is a reliable asset, averaging 21 touches per game over the past seven weeks and hitting the paydirt 7 times over his past five games. Miami has played the run well since their Week 5 bye, allowing 3.8 YPC (10th) and only 0.74 yards before contact (4th).

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill collected 5-of-6 targets for 48 yards on Sunday. His target rate with Tua this season is 23.3%, down from previous years. His quality of target has also dipped, with 20% of his targets being inaccurate. Since Tua returned, he has been a floor-based WR2/WR3 rather than a WR1. Green Bay is expected to be without Jaire Alexander again, allowing only 7.9 yards per target to WR1s (9th) but a 7.7% touchdown rate (23rd) to lead receivers.

Jayden Reed had only three targets on Sunday and has been a top-40 scorer in only one of his past five games. His target volume has been a concern, with only 12 and 17 total routes run in recent games. Miami has allowed the fewest points to opposing slot receivers (9.6 per game), with a 72.1% catch rate (24th) and 8.1 yards per target (16th). Jaylen Waddle had a season-high in targets, catches, and yards on Sunday with a touchdown. The ball is more spread out in Miami's passing game this season, making it more volatile. Green Bay could be without Alexander again, opening the door for Waddle to shine on the outside, where he plays 80% of his snaps. The Packers have allowed a 5.6% touchdown rate to outside receivers (21st) and 7.6 yards per target (9th) and a 59.8% catch rate (10th) to those receivers.

Christian Watson did not catch any of his four targets on Sunday but will have added opportunities with Doubs expected to be a longshot. He averages a team-high 18.2 air yards per target and draws 32.4% of his targets on throws 20 or more yards downfield. Miami has been vulnerable to deep targets, allowing a 46.2% catch rate (29th) to wide receivers.

Dontayvion Wicks is back on the table with the potential absence of Doubs. He leads the team with 18.8% of the targets when Doubs is off the field, but his playing time has been affected by Watson. He is in play as a WR3/FLEX and DFS play with the expected increase in playing time.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith stayed hot on Sunday, catching 9-of-11 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. He has finished as the TE2 in overall weekly scoring in 3 of his past 6 games and leads Miami with 20.8% of the targets since Tua returned. Green Bay is 21st in receptions allowed per game to tight ends and allows 8.4 yards per target (23rd) and a 5.3% touchdown rate (22nd) to the position.

Tucker Kraft had only two catches for 26 yards on Sunday but scored a touchdown. He has 27.9% of the team targets in the red zone and can create on his own as an added-out, with 70.6% of his yards coming after the catch.

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