College Football 25 simulation: Does BYU have any shot of upsetting Kansas State?

Sep 21, 2024 at 4:20 PM

Cougar Clash: BYU Faces Tough Test Against Ranked Kansas State

As the college football season kicks into high gear, the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season using the EA Sports College Football 25 video game. In the latest matchup, the Cougars take on the 13th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats in a crucial Big 12 showdown.

Can BYU Upset the Wildcats in LaVell Edwards Stadium?

Simulation Setup and Adjustments

The simulation was set up with 10-minute quarters, and the computer was left to run the game without any user interference. To create more realistic passing numbers, the passing accuracy was adjusted from 50 to 35, and the pass defense ratings were increased from 50 to 75. Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, with BYU's running back situation being the biggest adjustment, as LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati were both doubtful for the game.

Accuracy of Previous Simulation

The simulation of BYU's last game against Wyoming was remarkably accurate, with the final score of 41-20 in favor of the Cougars being just a single point off from the actual 34-14 result. Both teams scored one more touchdown in the simulation than in the real game, but the overall outcome and margin of victory were closely mirrored.

Simulated Clash with Kansas State

The simulated matchup between BYU and Kansas State was a nail-biter, with the Wildcats emerging victorious in overtime by a score of 24-17. The Cougars never led in the contest, but they managed to force overtime after a late fourth-quarter touchdown. In the extra session, Kansas State's quarterback Avery Johnson scrambled for a crucial 22-yard run to set up the game-winning touchdown run by running back Dylan Edwards.

Offensive Showdown

The game was a closely contested affair, with both teams showcasing their offensive prowess. Kansas State struck first, with DJ Giddens scoring a 1-yard touchdown run to give the Wildcats a 7-0 lead. BYU responded with a balanced drive, culminating in a 22-yard field goal by Will Ferrin to make it 7-3.

Momentum Shifts and Turnovers

The Wildcats extended their lead to 10-3 in the second quarter, but the Cougars quickly answered with a 35-yard touchdown pass from Jake Retzlaff to running back Miles Davis, tying the game at 10-10 before halftime. The third quarter was a defensive stalemate, but in the fourth quarter, Retzlaff was intercepted in the end zone, giving Kansas State the opportunity to take the lead. The Wildcats capitalized, with Johnson scoring on a 2-yard keeper to make it 17-10.

Cougar Comeback and Overtime Heartbreak

BYU refused to go down without a fight, and Retzlaff found Keelan Marion for an 18-yard touchdown with just 1:32 remaining in regulation to tie the game at 17-17. However, in overtime, the Wildcats' Edwards scored the game-winning touchdown, and Kansas State's Keenan Garber intercepted Retzlaff in the end zone to seal the victory.

Statistical Breakdown

The simulation was a closely contested affair, with Kansas State amassing 385 yards of total offense, while BYU had 349 yards. The Cougars' ability to convert 12 of 18 third downs kept them in the game, but the two turnovers in the red zone proved to be the difference.

Realistic Outlook

While the simulation suggests a closer-than-expected game, the Wildcats' dominance against Arizona last week suggests they may have the edge in this matchup. However, the Cougars' home-field advantage and their ability to keep the game close could make for an exciting and unpredictable contest. Ultimately, the simulation highlights the potential for a thrilling Big 12 showdown between these two talented teams.