The state of California is set to embark on an ambitious journey toward zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) dominance, with the first phase of new sales mandates taking effect next year. Despite optimism from policymakers, concerns have emerged about the feasibility of achieving these targets. This article explores the background of this initiative and the challenges it faces.

The Path to 100% ZEV Sales by 2035

In September 2020, Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order aiming for all new passenger cars and trucks sold in California to be zero-emission by 2035. This directive was designed to combat air pollution and advance the state’s clean energy goals. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) subsequently introduced the Advanced Clean Cars II regulations, setting annual benchmarks for automakers to meet. Starting in 2026, at least 35% of new car and truck sales must be electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, or hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles, increasing annually until reaching 100% in 2035.

This mandate applies only to new sales; existing gasoline-powered vehicles can still be driven post-2035. CARB has also placed restrictions on plug-in hybrid sales, allowing no more than 20% of total ZEV sales each year to encourage fully emission-free vehicles. Traditional hybrids without a plug do not count toward the ZEV quota. While ZEV sales have surged over the past decade, the rate of adoption has recently slowed. In 2024, only a marginal increase in electric vehicle sales was observed, raising doubts about meeting the 2026 target. Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, believes that consumer demand is insufficient to meet the mandated percentages.

Navigating Challenges and Building Infrastructure

Despite skepticism, CARB remains confident in the success of the initiative. They argue that falling battery prices, expanding range, and growing infrastructure will support continued growth in ZEV sales. The state is investing heavily in charging infrastructure, allocating $1.4 billion to expand its network with nearly 17,000 new light-duty chargers statewide. This investment aims to alleviate "range anxiety" among potential buyers who fear running out of charge.

If manufacturers fail to meet the annual targets, they can carry deficits for up to three years and purchase credits from companies exceeding the mandate. Fines of up to $20,000 per non-compliant vehicle could also be imposed. However, CARB emphasizes flexibility within the regulation to adapt to changing market dynamics. Critics like Maas worry that if targets are unmet, manufacturers may limit the supply of gasoline-powered vehicles in California, leading to higher costs and reduced consumer choice. Nevertheless, CARB predicts international competition will drive ZEV market share higher, and historical trends suggest automakers often surpass regulatory expectations. As the 2026 model year approaches, all eyes will be on whether this ambitious plan can succeed.