The automotive landscape in Britain is on the cusp of a significant transformation. According to a recent report, 2024 is set to mark the "peak petrol" era, with electric vehicles (EVs) poised to claim a much larger share of the country's car market. Auto Trader's analysis reveals that over the next decade, the number of gasoline-powered cars on British roads is expected to plummet by nearly half as drivers increasingly embrace EVs.

Unraveling the Shift from Petrol to EVs in British Motoring

Impact on the Car Market

In 2024, there were 18.7 million gasoline-powered cars on Britain's roads. However, this figure is projected to steadily decline to just 11.1 million by 2034. Simultaneously, the number of EVs is set to soar from 1.25 million in 2024 to 13.7 million over the same period. This shift indicates a major paradigm change in the way Britons commute. Auto Trader's Ian Plummer emphasizes, "We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share."The EV share of the new car market is projected to rise from roughly 18% this year to 23% in 2025. Although this is still some way below the 28% target set by the UK government's Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, the upward trajectory is clear. This transition is not without its challenges. Against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand and a range of industry obstacles such as the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, and changing finance rules, the shift towards EVs is a complex process.

ZEV Mandate and its Implications

Under the current rules, manufacturers are obligated to ensure that at least 22% of new cars sold are zero-emission vehicles. From next year, this target is set to increase to 28% and reach 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035. The UK's center-left Labour government has faced calls to review the ZEV mandate due to the relatively high costs of EVs and the resulting flagging demand. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders warned that these government targets are putting excessive pressure on the industry, potentially leading to "devastating impacts" on business viability and jobs.However, a group of 14 NGOs, think tanks, and campaign groups wrote an open letter to the UK government in mid-November, advocating for the ZEV mandate to be upheld. They argued that the policy remains one of the country's most significant carbon-saving measures and that the current flexibilities provided to the car industry are sufficient.The UK government spokesperson stated that it would soon bring forward a consultation to support the industry in reaching its commitment to phase out the sale of new cars powered solely by internal combustion engines by 2030. A £2 billion ($2.54 billion) investment is being made to support the domestic manufacturing transition, and over £300 million has been budgeted to drive the uptake of EVs.

Real-life Examples and Challenges

Last week, automotive giant Stellantis announced the closure of its Vauxhall van factory in Luton, southern England, putting over 1,000 jobs at risk. This highlights the challenges faced by the industry as it navigates the transition to EVs. While the ZEV mandate aims to drive sustainability, it also presents immediate economic consequences for certain sectors.On the other hand, the growth of EV infrastructure is crucial for the widespread adoption of EVs. The availability of roadside charging stations is increasing, providing more convenience for EV drivers. This infrastructure development is an essential aspect of supporting the transition and ensuring that EVs become a viable option for the majority of British motorists.In conclusion, Britain's journey towards a more sustainable automotive future is underway. The forecasted "peak petrol" in 2024 and the rising dominance of EVs present both opportunities and challenges. As the industry continues to evolve, it will be crucial to address these issues and ensure a smooth transition to a greener motoring landscape.