Crypto's Fate Hangs on the 2024 Election: A Detailed Analysis

The upcoming 2024 US presidential election could have a significant impact on the future of cryptocurrencies, according to a recent report by Standard Chartered. The bank's analysts have provided detailed projections on how bitcoin's price could be affected, depending on the outcome of the election.

Crypto's Fortunes Tied to the Next President

Trump's Crypto-Friendly Agenda: A Potential Boon for Bitcoin

If former President Donald Trump were to win the 2024 election, the cryptocurrency market could see a significant surge. According to Standard Chartered's analysis, bitcoin could reach as high as $125,000 by the end of the year under a Trump presidency. This projection is based on the expectation that Trump would be more proactive in rolling back existing crypto regulations and replacing key regulatory figures, such as the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies has undergone a notable shift in recent years. Once a vocal critic of the asset class, the former president has now embraced a more crypto-friendly approach. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, Trump announced plans to eliminate the controversial "Checkpoint 2.0" regulations and to replace the current SEC chair. He also promised to establish a national stockpile of federally-owned bitcoin, which could account for as much as 1% of the total bitcoin supply.These pro-crypto policies, if implemented, could provide a significant boost to the market, according to Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick believes that under a Trump presidency, bitcoin could see a staggering 117% increase from its current price of around $57,600, reaching a new all-time high of $125,000 by the end of 2024.

Harris' Crypto-Friendly Approach: A Slower but Steady Climb for Bitcoin

In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, the cryptocurrency market's trajectory would likely be more gradual, but still positive. Standard Chartered's analysis suggests that under a Harris administration, bitcoin could reach $75,000 by the end of 2024.While not as dramatic as the potential gains under Trump, this projection still represents a significant increase from bitcoin's current levels. Kendrick believes that Harris would be more open to crypto than the current Biden administration, which has maintained a relatively stringent regulatory stance.One key area where Harris is expected to diverge from Biden is the issue of digital asset custody. The current administration has kept in place a bill that prevents banks from providing custody services for cryptocurrencies. Kendrick suggests that Harris would likely shift course on this policy, potentially paving the way for greater institutional adoption of digital assets.

Navigating the Regulatory Landscape: The Importance of Political Leadership

The stark contrast between the potential outcomes under Trump and Harris highlights the crucial role that political leadership plays in shaping the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. While the cryptocurrency industry has made significant strides in recent years, it remains heavily dependent on the policies and decisions of policymakers.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani echoes this sentiment, noting that the market has yet to fully price in the potential impact of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. Chhugani predicts that under a Trump presidency, bitcoin could surge as high as $90,000 by the end of 2024, as the market adjusts to the new regulatory landscape.Beyond the political landscape, Kendrick also cites other factors that could contribute to bitcoin's price appreciation in the coming years. These include the potential for a re-steepening of Treasury yields, as well as a resurgence of momentum in bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Long-Term Outlook: Bullish Regardless of the Election Outcome

Despite the varying short-term projections based on the election outcome, Standard Chartered maintains a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin. Kendrick suggests that regardless of who wins the presidency, the cryptocurrency is poised to reach new all-time highs by the end of 2025, potentially surpassing the $200,000 mark.This long-term optimism is rooted in the belief that the underlying fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market, such as increasing institutional adoption and technological advancements, will continue to drive its growth. While the political landscape may influence the pace of this growth, the overall trajectory appears to be firmly pointed upwards.As the 2024 election approaches, the cryptocurrency community will undoubtedly be closely watching the political developments and their potential impact on the market. Investors and industry participants will need to carefully navigate the shifting regulatory environment, while also keeping a close eye on the broader economic and technological trends that are shaping the future of digital assets.