Bitcoin Analysis: Leading Cryptocurrency Below $100k with Market Shifts

Dec 9, 2024 at 1:30 AM
Slide 5
Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4
Slide 5
Slide 1
The maximum price of Bitcoin has witnessed a remarkable journey, reaching approximately $103,000. Since the elections, its market capitalization has surged from 1.3 trillion USD to over 2 trillion USD, demonstrating significant growth. The correlation with the S&P 500 remains close to 82%, suggesting that Bitcoin's price movements are likely to follow similar trends as the broader stock market in the near term.

Unraveling Bitcoin's Market Trajectory

Bitcoin's Position as a Market Leader

The leader of cryptocurrencies continues to hold a prominent position in the market. Over the past month, it has seen a price increase of over 40%, driven by investor confidence following the elections. Currently, Bitcoin's maximum price is in the $103,000 range, solidifying its status as one of the fastest-growing assets in the cryptocurrency sector. This growth is a testament to the increasing popularity and potential of Bitcoin in the financial world.Bitcoin's market capitalization growth has been nothing short of astonishing. From approximately 1.3 trillion USD to over 2 trillion USD, it represents a significant leap. This growth is not only limited to Bitcoin but has also spilled over to other assets like Ethereum, which has shown consistent growth of over 50% during the same period. This highlights the growing interest from investors in the cryptocurrency market and the potential for further growth.

The Effect of the Presidential Elections

The reelection of Donald Trump had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. During his campaign, he emphasized reducing regulatory burdens on the crypto market, positioning the United States as a favorable environment for virtual currency exchange. His nomination of Paul Atkins as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could lead to changes in some restrictive aspects of current regulations.Since the election on November 5, Bitcoin's market capitalization has witnessed a remarkable increase. It has grown from approximately 1.3 trillion USD to over 2 trillion USD, representing a growth of about 50%. This surge, which has not been seen for over a year, indicates a major shift in the general perspective of the cryptocurrency market. Investors are showing increasing confidence in the cryptocurrency space, driven by these political developments.

How Did the ETF Perform?

Since BlackRock's push to formalize a Bitcoin ETF, market acceptance has been remarkable. There are even discussions about creating similar securities for other cryptocurrencies like Ether and Ripple. Currently, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reached $50 billion in assets under management for the first time, reflecting the growing interest of institutional investors in the regulated Bitcoin market. This has played a crucial role in maintaining market confidence during the holiday season.

Correlation Cannot Be Ignored

Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin has shown an increasing correlation with traditional markets. Currently, its correlation with the S&P 500 is at 82%, indicating that positive movements in the index are comparable to Bitcoin's price movements.The primary cause of this phenomenon is the optimism prevailing in the markets after the elections. This optimism has driven capital toward higher-risk markets, reducing activity in fixed-income markets. However, this dependence on confidence in traditional markets could pose a long-term risk. Any loss of confidence in the indexes could also impact Bitcoin to some extent. It is important to note that this correlation may not continue in the future, and investors should be cautious.

Bitcoin Technical Forecast

Bitcoin has experienced a surprising bullish trend in recent sessions, reaching $100,000 per BTC for the first time. All key resistance zones have been surpassed, and the price maintains a constant upward acceleration. This rapid price increase could lead to short-term corrections, and it is important to monitor movements around the key resistance zone at $100k.Since September, Bitcoin's price started a stable upward trend around $56,800. However, in November, this trend became significantly steeper, showing faster-than-expected price growth. The RSI is currently oscillating above 70, indicating an overbought level and a significant imbalance between buying and selling pressures. Additionally, the CCI shows consistently elevated levels above 100, warning of a potential excess in buying strength that may moderate in the short term.Key levels include:- $100k: A psychological barrier that has become the new key resistance zone in price movements. Breaks above this level could signal stronger buying momentum.- $92,300: The current support level on the chart, where corrections may stabilize.- $73,000: A critical floor; movements near this level could endanger the bullish trend.Bitcoin continues to exhibit a strong upward trend, driven by recent political events that have boosted market confidence. However, its ability to sustain strong movements above the $100k zone will be crucial for maintaining confidence in the long-term trend.