Michigan State Football's Postseason Hopes Hinge on This Weekend

Looking at the Big Picture

As of now, twelve out of the eighteen Big Ten teams have secured a bowl game. Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana are all vying for spots in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Michigan State and Wisconsin, who host Minnesota (6-5) on Saturday, are both 5-6 and need a win to qualify for the postseason.

There are 77 teams that have already qualified for 84 bowl spots, including 12 CFP berths and two spots in each of the 36 non-CFP bowls. This weekend, there are two games featuring 5-6 teams, with the winners of the Eastern Michigan-Western Michigan and Virginia-Virginia Tech games assured of their sixth victory.

The Race for the Final Spots

With 79 of the 84 berths accounted for, 11 teams are fighting for the final five spots. The Big Ten has seven non-CFP bowl tie-ins, and if Michigan State wins, it will likely be in contention for one of the conference's two final selections - the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit and the Rate Bowl in Phoenix on December 26.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm projects that the Spartans will head to Ford Field to face Miami (Ohio) in the GameAbove Sports Bowl, filling the last spot in the Big Ten's pecking order. Nebraska, which won its sixth game last week for the first time since 2016, is projected to go to the Rate Bowl in Phoenix and face former Big 12 rival Texas Tech.

The Academic Factor

It is almost certain that there will be enough teams with six wins to fill all the bowl slots. However, there is a minuscule chance for a 5-7 team to claim a bowl spot based on Academic Progress Rate. Michigan State is tied for 58th out of 133 programs in APR, but it is only behind seven teams that have already won five games and five others with a chance to win their fifth game this weekend.

This essentially makes Saturday a win-and-get-in situation for Smith and the Spartans. Every game counts, and a victory over Minnesota could secure their place in the postseason.