In the highly contested race for the reelection of former President Donald Trump in Michigan, voters were inundated with two distinct and often conflicting messages. One side advocated for a swift transition to electric vehicles (EVs) fueled by federal aid, envisioning a new golden era for the American automotive industry. Meanwhile, the other warned that EVs would spell doom for U.S. carmakers as China dominated the global clean energy market.

The Divisive Debate

During their nearly 50 visits to Michigan this year, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, passionately presented their opposing visions for the nation. Trump warned that without his victory, the auto industry in Michigan would face collapse within two to three years due to China's dominance in EVs. Harris, on the other hand, emphasized the Biden-Harris administration's efforts to ensure that the next generation of breakthroughs in EV technology would be developed and manufactured in America by American union workers.

Since the passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration has allocated over $23 billion in loans and grants to support EV and EV battery manufacturing in the United States. This has led to nearly $150 billion in private investments from manufacturers, with many opening or expanding operations in the country. However, as EV sales have plateaued worldwide and major automakers have started to scale back their EV plans, many Michigan autoworkers find themselves uncertain about the future.

For instance, Stellantis, the maker of Jeep and Ram, recently laid off over 400 workers at its Detroit logistics facility, citing "slowing EV adoption" as a major factor. The company had previously laid off more than 1,000 workers at its Warren, Michigan, truck assembly facility. These developments have given the GOP message about the dangers of EVs more traction among Michigan voters.

Republican Attacks on EVs

In Michigan, where Trump won by a narrow margin, Republicans were unrelenting in their attacks on EVs. Political science professor Barry Rabe at the University of Michigan's Ford School of Public Policy noted that "it was consistently a top five issue in Michigan politics for candidates at all levels." Republican candidates like former Rep. Mike Rogers railed against Democrats for supporting a federal rule that required newly built cars to emit less pollution, dubbing it an "EV mandate."

In one ad, the Trump campaign spent nearly $1 million to air in Michigan before the election, claiming that "Kamala Harris wants to end all gas powered cars. Crazy, but true!" Democrats countered by pointing out that the new regulations are not strict "mandates" in the traditional sense. The Biden administration's Clean Cars Standards require cars built after 2026 to emit half the amount of carbon dioxide as today's new cars and aim to improve air quality for environmental justice communities.

Automakers have the flexibility to choose how to achieve these reductions, including through building EVs, incorporating carbon capture technologies, or developing hydrogen-fueled cars. However, carbon capture and hydrogen fuel remain expensive options, leaving EVs as the most practical choice for now.

Democratic Defenses and Challenges

Democrats fought back against the Republican attacks by emphasizing that there is no "EV mandate" in the strictest sense. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris' running mate, told rally-goers in Michigan that "nobody's mandating anything to you." But for many everyday Americans who do not follow the discourse closely, the semantics of the regulations seem confusing.

Adrian Hemond, a longtime political strategist and CEO of Grassroots Midwest, pointed out that "those sorts of word games are exactly why the Democratic brand is in tatters right now. People think that if there's only one option, it's functionally the same as a mandate."

As election day approached, it became clear that Democrats were struggling to defend their position. A University of Chicago poll found that the majority of Americans did not support federal incentives for EVs. A similar survey in Michigan by Lansing-based pollster EPIC-MRA found that 55 percent of Michigan voters disapproved of the government's "plan to promote the sale of more electric vehicles."

Unions and EVs

Labor unions, which played a crucial role in putting President Joe Biden into the White House in 2020, were hesitant to fully support Harris. Biden had made unions a central part of his economic messaging, and federal funding was supposed to revitalize American manufacturing, including in Michigan. But as EV sales slowed and concerns about job losses grew, some union members became wary.

The UAW, including Michigan's local chapters, officially endorsed Harris before the election, but internal surveys showed that a significant portion of union members preferred Trump. UAW President Shawn Fain pleaded with members to support Harris, but some still worried about their futures. Research has shown that switching to EVs may not necessarily lead to job losses, but Republicans capitalized on fears of unemployment.

For example, Whitney Walch, a UAW member and Michigan resident, expressed concerns about the impact of EVs on his job. "I think EVs are going to wipe us out. They don't need spark plugs, what else, oil filters, we sell a lot of those... If we don't have all those parts, I feel like we don't have a lot to do."