As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the automotive industry has emerged as a critical battleground, with Michigan's 16 electoral votes and 1.1 million automotive jobs at the center of the debate. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both made the Great Lakes State a priority, recognizing the industry's significance in determining the outcome of the race.

Navigating the Automotive Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities for the Next President

The Harris vs. Trump Showdown

While major automakers and suppliers have remained cautious in publicly endorsing either candidate, industry executives and lobbyists have shared their insights on the potential implications of a Harris or Trump presidency. Officials expect a Harris victory to be a continuation, albeit with some differences, of the Biden administration's policies. However, concerns linger over her alignment with the United Auto Workers (UAW) and the potential impact on the industry. Conversely, a Trump win would likely see a return to the policies and actions of his first term, potentially with a more aggressive approach.

Emissions Regulations: A Contentious Battleground

One of the most pressing issues for the automotive industry is the future of fuel economy and emissions regulations, particularly the 2026 model year requirements under the "Advanced Clean Cars II" regulations. Automakers are expected to push for a postponement of these mandates, regardless of the election outcome. While officials anticipate Harris would seek a middle ground, similar to the Biden administration, Trump is expected to roll back or freeze the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2027-2031.

Electric Vehicles and the Inflation Reduction Act

The future of electric vehicles (EVs) and the policies supporting them, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), are top priorities for the industry. A Trump victory could lead to a significant rollback or elimination of EV incentives and mandates, while a Harris administration is expected to maintain, if not expand, support for the industry's electrification efforts. However, some experts argue that the IRA's current structure may not be optimally designed to incentivize the most efficient EV technologies.

Trade, Tariffs, and the China Factor

Both Trump and Harris have expressed intentions to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade deal that replaced NAFTA. While Trump touted the USMCA during his first term, Harris was one of the senators who voted against it. Tariffs also remain a central issue, with Trump's willingness to increase them dramatically to prevent Chinese automakers from importing cars into the U.S. from Mexico, and Harris' criticism of such proposals as a "sales tax on the American people."

The Labor Landscape: Unions and the Automotive Industry

The automotive industry's relationship with organized labor, particularly the UAW, is a significant concern for officials. A Harris victory is expected to continue the increased political clout of the UAW and its president, Shawn Fain, who has been a vocal critic of the industry. In contrast, Trump and Fain have been at odds, with the former president's policies potentially posing challenges for the union's efforts to organize more auto plants.As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the automotive industry in Michigan finds itself at the center of a high-stakes political battle. Regardless of the outcome, the industry must navigate a complex landscape of regulations, trade policies, and labor relations, all while adapting to the rapidly evolving landscape of electric vehicles and technological advancements. The next president's approach to these issues will undoubtedly shape the future of the automotive industry and its role in the American economy.