Analysis of Treasury Market Movements and Global Currencies
Nov 25, 2024 at 12:11 AM
In the realm of financial markets, significant shifts have been observed. Benchmark 10-year Treasury futures witnessed an upward trajectory, advancing by 13 ticks. This occurred ahead of the cash open and led to a 0.4% rise in S&P 500 futures, bringing it tantalizingly close to a record high. Simultaneously, the dollar weakened across the board, providing a boost to the battered euro, which saw a 0.5% appreciation to $1.0484.
Market Perception and Candidate Selection
The market view that Bessent is a "safe hands" candidate has brought a sense of relief. As strategist Stephen Spratt from Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) pointed out, the risk of a more unorthodox pick had been priced out of markets. This indicates the importance of such a perception in influencing market sentiments.Australian Share Market and Global Futures
Australia's share market reached a record high, demonstrating the strength in the region. Futures also pointed to a stronger open in Japan and a weaker start in Hong Kong. However, it's important to note that the week's trade is likely to be affected by Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday, potentially leading to lighter trading volumes.President-Elect Trump's Treasury Secretary Appointment
The appointment of a Treasury secretary by President-elect Donald Trump has been closely monitored in bond markets. Expectations of tax cuts, along with tariffs and an immigration crackdown, have stoked fears of inflation and large deficits. Bessent, before his selection as Treasury secretary, told CNBC in November that he would recommend "tariffs be layered in gradually." This shows his stance on trade policies and their potential impact.Bessent's Advocacy and Career Background
Bessent has advocated for the U.S. to grow its way out of large debts in a Bloomberg interview. He also emphasized the need for tax reform and deregulation, particularly to spur bank lending and energy production. His career has been spent working for billionaire investor George Soros and noted short seller Jim Chanos, as well as running his own hedge fund. This diverse background gives him a unique perspective in the financial arena.Impact on Global Currencies
The yen saw a notable increase of about 0.4% to 154.15 per dollar. The Aussie dollar bounced 0.6% to $0.6541, while the kiwi, which had slid to a one-year low on Friday due to increasing bets on a dovish central bank, rebounded 0.5% to $0.5862. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's meeting on Wednesday is closely watched, with a 50 bp rate cut fully priced and markets implying about a 1/3 chance of a super-sized 75 bp cut. This shows the sensitivity of currencies to central bank policies and market expectations.