The agricultural community, particularly almond producers in California, is currently grappling with the implications of an unusually optimistic crop forecast issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). This contentious projection, which anticipates a staggering 3-billion-pound almond harvest—the second largest in recorded history—has sparked considerable debate and frustration among growers. Many within the industry contend that the federal estimate fails to consider critical on-the-ground realities, such as the widespread presence of distressed orchards and the significant financial pressures facing farmers. Consequently, this elevated forecast is perceived as contributing to a noticeable downturn in market prices, directly impacting the economic viability of almond farming.
The controversy surrounding the NASS estimate became particularly evident on July 10, when the agency released its objective measurement report. Despite a generally mild spring and summer, which had initially raised hopes for strong yields, the federal projection exceeded industry expectations. Matthew Efird, a fifth-generation nut farmer operating south of Fresno, voiced strong concerns, highlighting that the estimate could lead to a 'carryout' situation, effectively driving down prices by as much as 25 to 50 cents per pound. This sentiment is echoed by many others in the sector, who believe the Almond Board of California's earlier, more conservative subjective forecast of 2.8 billion pounds was a more accurate reflection of the actual crop size.
Efird further elaborated on the perceived flaws in the NASS methodology, explaining that the federal survey relies primarily on mathematical calculations and does not sufficiently integrate 'intangibles.' These intangibles include the substantial number of orchards suffering from neglect, where growers, facing severe financial constraints, have been unable to invest in necessary pest and disease control measures or have even abandoned their land entirely. Such factors significantly impact actual yield but are not captured by the current statistical models. The timing of this estimate is particularly critical, as approximately 75% of the almond crop is typically sold by December, meaning growers must contend with depressed prices during peak sales periods.
The current situation is exacerbated by the fact that almond prices had only recently started to recover, climbing from a low of $1.40 per pound in 2022 to $2.14 per pound last year. However, this recovery has been undercut by a simultaneous rise in production costs, rendering the rebound less impactful for growers. The Almond Board of California, recognizing the industry’s disquiet, has emphasized its ongoing efforts to stimulate global demand for almonds through innovation, exploring new applications, and expanding market reach. They acknowledge that all estimates will have some variance from actual figures and that various industry forecasts provide a range of perspectives throughout the year.
This is not an isolated incident; similar disputes over federal crop estimates have occurred in the past, with growers often complaining when forecasts prove to be higher than actual production. While NASS maintains that its procedures for the 2025 survey remained unchanged, calls for a thorough review of the methodology are gaining traction, especially given the tight profit margins within the almond industry. The Almond Board, which financially supports the NASS surveys, conducts an annual review of the estimation process with an industry task force, and another such review is planned. For now, growers like Ryan Jacobsen of the Fresno County Farm Bureau are left to harvest their crops, hoping for a stabilization or slight increase in prices to offset the recent losses. The long-term impact of these projections on the almond market and the livelihoods of Californian farmers remains a significant concern.
