China's "Rotten-Tail Kids": The Plight of Unemployed College Graduates

China is facing a growing crisis as millions of college graduates struggle to find employment, leaving many to accept low-paying jobs or rely on their parents' pensions. This new phenomenon, dubbed "rotten-tail kids," has become a pressing social and economic concern, drawing parallels to the country's ongoing real estate woes.

Underemployment Plagues China's Educated Youth

The Alarming Rise in Youth Unemployment

The jobless rate for Chinese youth aged 16-24 has reached unprecedented levels, surpassing 20% in April 2022 and hitting an all-time high of 21.3% in June 2023. Authorities have since suspended the data series, citing the need to reevaluate the compilation methods. However, the reconfigured rate still spiked to 17.1% in July 2024, as over 11 million college students graduated into an economy struggling with its real estate crisis.

Unfulfilled Promises of a College Degree

For many Chinese college graduates, the once-promised benefits of a higher education, such as better job prospects, upward social mobility, and a brighter future, have become increasingly elusive. Despite their academic achievements, these "rotten-tail kids" find themselves facing a bleak job market, struggling to secure positions that match their qualifications.

Settling for Lower Expectations

Faced with limited options, some jobless young people have returned to their hometowns, relying on their parents' retirement pensions and savings to sustain themselves. Even those with postgraduate degrees are not spared, as they discover that their qualifications are not enough to secure high-paying jobs in the current economic climate.

The Emerging "Rotten-Tail" Phenomenon

The term "rotten-tail kids" has become a social media buzzword, drawing parallels to the "rotten-tail buildings" that have plagued China's real estate sector. This phrase encapsulates the plight of college graduates who are forced to compromise their career aspirations and settle for low-paying or unsatisfactory jobs, or even turn to criminal activities to make ends meet.

Government Efforts to Address the Crisis

President Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized the importance of finding jobs for young people, and the government has called for more channels to connect graduates with potential employers, such as job fairs. Additionally, supportive business policies have been rolled out to help boost hiring. However, the challenges facing China's educated youth remain daunting, and the long-term implications of this crisis are yet to be fully realized.

The Uncertain Future of China's College Graduates

The oversupply of college graduates is not a new phenomenon in China, as the country has been expanding university enrollment since 1999 to produce a more educated workforce. However, the job market has struggled to keep up with the influx of graduates, and the outlook remains uncertain, even for students whose majors align with market needs.

Navigating the Changing Landscape

As China's economy continues to evolve, the job market for college graduates is expected to undergo significant changes. A study published in June 2024 by China Higher Education Research suggests that the supply of tertiary students will exceed demand from 2024 through 2037, after which the effects of falling fertility rates will narrow the gap. This shifting landscape will require college graduates to adapt and explore new career paths, potentially redefining the traditional path to success in China.