The 2025 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be an exhilarating event with a diverse group of contenders vying for the crown. Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman delve into their analysis, examining potential runners based on their performances in prep races, breeding, and overall suitability for the classic distance. They categorize each horse as either a contender or pretender, focusing on factors such as racing style, consistency, and experience.
Among the standout contenders are horses like Journalism, Burnham Square, and Sovereignty, whose tactical speed and impressive performances have positioned them favorably. Meanwhile, several promising colts face challenges due to limited experience or unsuitable racing styles. The duo also evaluates horses making international journeys, questioning whether these global competitors possess the necessary traits to thrive at Churchill Downs.
Prominent Contenders: Speed and Versatility
This segment highlights the key contenders who have demonstrated both versatility and tactical speed, making them strong candidates for success in the Kentucky Derby. These horses have shown resilience across various tracks and distances, bolstering their credentials as serious contenders. Their consistent performances and adaptability set them apart from others in the field.
Burnham Square and Sandman exemplify this category, having excelled in prestigious prep races through their late-running abilities. Burnham Square's victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes showcased his prowess, while Sandman’s rally from behind has proven effective despite mixed results at Churchill Downs. Both horses bring valuable experience gained from competing at multiple tracks, enhancing their chances in the challenging Derby environment.
Journalism stands out as another formidable contender, praised for its natural speed advantage over other closers. With a pedigree suggesting no issues with the classic distance, this Curlin offspring boasts qualities highly sought after in Derby hopefuls. Although California's smaller fields may limit exposure, Brian believes Journalism remains the superior horse entering the race. Rodriguez adds intrigue with his speedy front-end victories, although concerns linger about handling intense competition amidst numerous speedsters.Challenges Faced by Long Shots and Internationals
In this section, attention turns to those facing significant hurdles, including long shots and international participants. Despite showing promise, these horses encounter obstacles ranging from unfamiliar surfaces to insufficient preparation for the demanding Derby conditions. Evaluating their potential requires careful consideration of past performances and current form.
Final Gambit captures interest as a potential dark horse, despite never having raced on dirt before. His impressive closing kick raises hopes for a competitive debut on the surface, though skepticism persists regarding his readiness. Similarly, Luxor Café arrives with an outstanding winning streak but lacks experience beyond Japan, prompting caution among analysts. Owen Almighty's decision reversal adds drama, raising questions about optimal race strategy given previous struggles maintaining leads over extended distances.
Admire Daytona and Grande represent intriguing cases within this group. While Admire Daytona triumphed in the UAE Derby, historical trends indicate diminished prospects when transitioning from that race to the Kentucky Derby. Conversely, Grande exhibits encouraging progression despite limited starts, sparking optimism tempered by concerns over adequate preparation time. Other pretenders, such as Chunk of Gold and Publisher, struggle under scrutiny due to inconsistent records or lackluster finishes against tougher opposition recently encountered during the Derby trail.