2024-25 Fantasy Basketball: 3 centers to avoid in drafts at their current ADP

Oct 2, 2024 at 3:09 PM

Navigating the Fantasy Basketball Center Landscape: Avoiding Potential Pitfalls

Constructing a competitive fantasy basketball team requires strategic decision-making, particularly when it comes to selecting the right players. In this article, we delve into the center position, highlighting three players that fantasy managers should approach with caution in their upcoming drafts.

Unlocking the Key to Fantasy Basketball Success

Brook Lopez, Clint Capela, and Mitchell Robinson are the centers under the microscope, as their unique circumstances and potential drawbacks make them risky investments for fantasy teams. By understanding the nuances of these players' situations, fantasy managers can make informed decisions and build a roster that maximizes their chances of success.

Brook Lopez: The Aging Veteran Facing Decline

At 36 years old, Brook Lopez is defying the odds, having missed just seven games over the past two seasons while maintaining a consistent 30-minute-per-night workload. The Milwaukee Bucks' veteran center remains a reliable source of 3-pointers and blocks, but his overall fantasy value is limited beyond those specific categories.Lopez's usage rate has declined for three consecutive seasons, and his shot selection is moving further from the basket, negatively impacting his efficiency. Despite his impressive size, the 7-footer is struggling to make an impact on the glass, ranking in the 16th percentile in offensive rebounds and the 9th percentile in defensive rebounds.While Lopez's shot-blocking prowess continues to elevate his fantasy value, fantasy managers should be cautious about drafting him at his current seventh-round average draft position (ADP). Instead, they may find better value in targeting players like Jusuf Nurkić, Mark Williams, or Isaiah Hartenstein, who offer more well-rounded production across multiple categories.

Clint Capela: The Uncertain Future in Atlanta

Clint Capela has long been considered one of the most underrated big men in fantasy basketball, but his future in Atlanta is now in question. The Hawks have been actively shopping the 30-year-old center, and they recently signed his understudy, Onyeka Okongwu, to a four-year, $62 million contract extension.Last season, Capela's minutes dropped to just 25 per game, his lowest mark since the 2016-2017 campaign. Meanwhile, Okongwu's playing time has been on a steady upward trend over the past four seasons, raising concerns about Capela's long-term role in the Hawks' rotation.Additionally, Capela's shooting efficiency near the rim has declined, with his field goal percentage dropping to 57% last season, the lowest since his rookie year. In a league that values versatility, Capela's inability to stretch the floor and his reliance on scoring in the paint could limit his fantasy appeal, especially with Okongwu's emergence as a more well-rounded option.Fantasy managers should approach Capela with caution, as his current ADP of 86 may not accurately reflect his diminishing role and the potential for Okongwu to overtake him as the Hawks' primary center. Investing in Okongwu, who is going 30 spots later, may be the wiser choice for those seeking long-term value at the center position.

Mitchell Robinson: The Injury-Prone Enigma

Fading Mitchell Robinson has less to do with the Karl-Anthony Towns trade and more to do with his persistent injury issues. The New York Knicks center is currently without a clear timetable for his return after undergoing surgery on his left ankle in the offseason, and he's already suffered a setback in his recovery.Last season, Robinson was on pace for an All-Defensive team bid, showcasing his prowess as the anchor of Tom Thibodeau's aggressive defense. However, a series of injuries limited his playing time, and he missed significant stretches of the regular season and playoffs.Despite his impressive per-game production when healthy, Robinson has struggled to stay on the court, playing over 60 games in just three of his six NBA seasons. With the Knicks reportedly taking a cautious approach to his recovery, fantasy managers should be wary of drafting him, even at his modest 11th-round ADP.The Knicks' frontcourt depth is relatively weak behind Towns, and the uncertainty surrounding Robinson's return date makes him a risky investment. Fantasy managers would be better off exploring alternative options that can provide more reliable and consistent production throughout the season.